Folks seem to assume that Nevada is safely in the blue column. But I worry that Nevada could become the Michigan of 2020, if we’re not careful. Let me tell you why:

1. Clinton won NV by less than she lost AZ (+2.4% vs. -3.5%). Trump’s base remains fired up, so Biden likely has to exceed HRC’s performance, as a buffer. Yet the last public poll in NV was in APRIL, lifetimes ago (it had Biden up 49-45). We don’t have a good read on the state.

2. For the 1st time, every active registered voter in NV will get mailed a ballot this year. An important step... and a big change. Before 2020, 90% of NV voting was in-person.

2 (ctd.)A little over 4% of mail-in ballots in Clark County were rejected during the primary, per @fairfightaction. Even with increased turnout, high rejection rates could impact the vote margin. https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1296466141527842821?s=20

3. The COVID factor: NV unemployment hit 28% at one point this year, ~250k are at risk for eviction. In our May poll, Latinos in NV reported higher levels of economic concern than any other state. While high unemployment can lead to higher turnout, here it adds up to uncertainty.

4. Organizing in the current env’t: The signature voter mobilization efforts that were critical to turning the state blue face new challenges. Orgs are being as creative as hell and in a world where site based voter registration and traditional canvassing at scale are a challenge

5. The Primary hangover: The depth of Sanders support in the state’s primary, and lack of emphasis from the Biden camp, meant Joe had more work to do to consolidate the base here. We saw young Latinos, in particular, holding back post-primary.

6. Trump has set on NV: his tour went through NV this week and the goal is clear: improve his Latino #s. He got shy of 30% of Latino vote in ‘16. “If we move those numbers to 34, 35 or even the high 30s, we will win the state for Donald Trump.” https://bit.ly/2EigUIe 

Perspective: in Equis polling, among registered Latinos, Trump has averaged 21% support for his re-elect and 30% job approval. But he’s hit higher #s in other areas: pre-COVID, 40% approved of his handling of the economy. In May, 39% approved of his handling of the pandemic.

In the last two weeks of July he spent over $200k on digital in the state.

It’s not all doom/gloom. Voter reg took a big hit in the spring (75% drop in Dem registrants b/w April '20 & ‘16) but it has since rallied. A spike in last few months has brought lots of Hispanics, and other young voters, onto the rolls. (h/t @tbonier) https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1293602043370889217?s=20

There are a lot of groups doing really impt work in the state that we want to lift up - @maketheroadnv @AmericaVotes @Culinary226 @NuestroPAC and more. Let's make sure they have the resources they need to reach & engage Latinx voters in NV & ensure it doesn’t slip away.