I've had people asking for historical comparisons for what is happening in Portland (and America), and I understand why. This is unsettling stuff.

So the temptation is to use history as a road map in order to get a sense of certainty.

I have thoughts on this. Thread.

First, history has limited utility in predicting the future. Especially in situations like this.

I know what you're saying. "History repeats."

Well, not really. And definitely not for things like this.

The US is experiencing an uprising, and that's a contingent affair.

What this means is that how this all ends (and even what happens on a day to day level) is heavily influenced by countless previous decisions and events.

That's why uprisings can't be replicated or fully predicted. Each one is unique.

That's why history isn't a prophecy.

So I can't tell you how this will end. I genuinely don't know, and anyone who pretends otherwise is foolish.

But what I can tell you, and what history CAN teach us, is that the contingency of this event means that you suddenly have a lot more power than you did 6 months ago.

The contingency of this era means that all of us are able to have an impact on how things go, in ways big and small.

And I'm not just talking about whether Trump sends in the Marines or something. I'm also talking about what YOU do.

What you choose to do right now will probably have a larger impact on history than at ANY other time in your life.

What you talk about, where you put your body, what you support, all of it.

All of it can have an outsized impact in times like these.

It also means that people you disagree with can ALSO have an outsized impact, so it is vitally important that you really put your energy towards affecting change that you want to see.

Because change is coming, one way or another. We aren't returning to 2015. Nor should we.

And as far as history goes... one thing it does suggest is that demographically and situationally, we're better than you'd assume.

I know it looks bad. I know it's scary as hell.

But the way the elements are lining up look less like bloody civil war and more like revolution.

What we are witnessing is an Administration that is opposed by the majority of Americans, is only in power because they have locked up our institutions, and has used its power to delegitimize the very same institutions that keep it in power.

What little support they are getting is coming from an increasingly old, increasingly unhealthy, and increasingly isolated group.

I mean, they spent months inviting people to this rally from all over the country... and this was the best they could do. https://twitter.com/PortlandDSA/status/1297248219043254272

And then you have the other side...

A group that is young, healthy, socially conscious, and is able to quickly and spontaneously organize (even without a central leadership).

At it's core is BLM.

A group that is more popular than Congress or the President.

And even the most extreme tactics (burning down the 5th precinct) has enjoyed majority approval from the American public.

There are some loud angry men who are excited about the loud angry man in the white house.

But the public at large wants change. https://www.newsweek.com/54-americans-think-burning-down-minneapolis-police-precinct-was-justified-after-george-floyds-1508452

I can't tell you how rare this all is.

We are in a situation where the Administration has destroyed its own creditability and legitimacy.

That's remarkable.

Normally it would take YEARS for a guerilla war to do that. And the Trump administration did it to itself. Remarkable.

And as such, we are now in an enormously fluid time.

How this goes, and what direction America heads in, depends on the decisions we make.

The decisions we ALL make.

Be mindful of the future that you want, because you're building it right now.

That's what history tells us.