. @klaviyo sent out an email the other day saying how Amazon’s Prime Day might happen in October.

Obviously, this might affect how a lot of ecomm businesses approach their Black Friday / Cyber Monday promos

Here’s a few predictions for what we might see happen...

(a thread)

Last year I predicted in 2020, we might see BFCM start at the beginning of Nov, possibly even Oct.

Looks like Amazon might have fired the first shot here, grabbing their share of their consumers dollar in October... leaving other brands to compete for whatever’s left over.

Brands that rely on flash sales (read: they haven’t built a relationship thru email) will have to try and copy Amazon, starting their sales in Oct or early Nov as well.

Brands that focus on their customer relationships, who build a bond with their list won’t have to compete. Their customers are already allocating some of their budget to buy from these brands. A mice side effect of doing email marketing RIGHT.

We might also see a “fracturing” of the traditional BFCM weekend promo.

We might see one or two pre-BFCM sales replace them entirely... leaving Cyber Weekend as a “scoop up” or “clean out inventory” style promos.

This could even be the last year BCFM is a thing. We might see brands start blitz’ing thru Q4, creating their own unique sales instead of waiting/competing with everyone else by the time BFCM hits.

One thing I am fairly fairly certain about is there will be a lot of EMOTIONAL SPENDING this year... probably more than ever.

An election where 50% of the populace will be disappointed regardless of the result + a “rough” year in general + limited retail shopping = a lot of “let’s end the year on a high note and really treat ourselves” type spending.

People will NOT stop spending money... no matter how bad their financial/job situations are. Look at how many people are in debt, this doesn’t even stop spending.

People are going to spend more than they normally do so they can self-soothe.

Also, no zombie hordes will be stampeding through Walmart or Target this year, will not be allowed. (social distancing)

Even more spending will move to e-commerce, it has to.

Brands who are emailing daily already are way ahead of the pack. They’re putting in the work in terms of relationship building and brand awareness... so they won’t look like the drunk uncle who only reaches out once a year every thanksgiving to ask for money.

BFCM also HAS to happen earlier, especially with all this Post Office fuckery. No matter what happens in terms of mail-in ballots... the post office is already behind as it is, and an increase in ecomm deliveries is going to stress the system even more.

Supply chain hiccups + unreliable post = starting Holiday promos even earlier... to put your customers minds at ease that they’ll get their gifts delivered in time.

You’re gonna want your email automations set up NOW... this could means tends of hundreds of thousands in extra revenue over the course of Q4. Do not put this off, get them up and running today.