The Shipman piece in today’s Times is a dispiriting read. We do not really know what goes on in the negotiation room. What is said by negotiators to the cameras afterwards is politics for domestic consumption. /1

So, we are not information-rich, but the politics themselves are illuminating even if only feebly. For me, the most worrying aspect is the failure of the politics to evolve. /2

If you want to succeed in a negotiation you need to do your very best to understand how the “other side” are thinking. There is still no convincing evidence of that happening in the UK statements. It results in the odd asymmetries of our approach. /3

Let’s start with no deal. For us, it is claimed, no deal is perfectly manageable. Indeed, some Brexit-supporters suggest, it may be the best possible outcome. But, we reason, the same cannot possibly be true for the EU. /4

No deal would be such a catastrophe or the EU that they will be forced to give us what we want. Walking away is our trump card. /5

This asymmetry is a form of exceptionalism which is why it plays so well with the base. There's no need to negotiate. There's no need for compromise because ultimately we can bend the EU to our will. So why haven’t the EU folded already? /6

There are three alternative explanations offered (sometimes all at once). Two boil down to a suggestion that the EU are stupid. The third focuses on process. /7

First, the EU doesn't understand that they need us more than we need them. They're incapable of understanding their own best interests. After decades of supposedly pursuing those interests at the expense of the UK, the Member States are suddenly and inexplicably blind to them /8

Even if this patronising view was your genuine analysis, you could not rationally believe that constantly expressing it publicly was conducive to persuasion. /9

Second, the EU is slow on the uptake and don’t understand that “we” mean it. We need to shout at them more. This is both patronising and bizarre. Brexit, from the EU perspective, is a vivid demonstration of the willingness of the UK to self-harm in pursuit of exceptionalism. /10

Third, they haven’t folded yet because their practice is to wait until the last minute before conceding everything. Whilst it may be true that deals tend to be concluded late, bargaining power generally carries the day. /11

For Brexiters the evidence for the theory was the EU’s concessions over the Withdrawal Agreement. But they also now think that was an EU stitch up. The evidence has vanished but the conclusion remains undisturbed. /12

Another stark asymmetry is our position that our red lines must be respected because they reflect our sovereign status whereas theirs are simply designed to provoke or punish. /13

Again, that position just demonstrates our eyesight can barely penetrate beyond the end of our nose and is toxic to co-operative negotiation. /14

TLDR: We need to up our game in this negotiation and that will require more listening than shouting. /end