Interesting piece by @ShippersUnbound on the attitude inside No 10 to a no deal Brexit. Rings true and highlights the reality that the risk of a no deal Brexit is under-priced. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-scarred-no-10-sees-brexit-no-deal-as-a-doddle-sx57kqmn6
Covid-scarred No 10 sees Brexit no deal as a doddle
It is tempting to see the latest round of downbeat progress reports from the Brexit trade talks as the usual diplomatic dancing in the darkness before dawn breaks on a deal. In fact, the prospect ofhttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-scarred-no-10-sees-brexit-no-deal-as-a-doddle-sx57kqmn6
Some have argued that the Government is more likely to agree to a deal because they’re vulnerable to the accusation that not getting a deal would constitute incompetence. But I think most of their supporters will buy the argument that it’s the EU’s fault.
I don’t think the UK govt is bluffing when it says it’s prepared to walk away without a deal. But I don’t think the EU position is as a consequence of misunderstanding the UK position. The EU won’t give UK good access to its markets without protection from unfair competition.
It’s been the longstanding position of Brexiteers that the EU will give us whatever we want as long as they believe that we’re prepared to walk away. With a Brexiteer govt, that argument will be exposed. Get ready for the explanation ‘the EU underestimated our determination’.
The sad reality is that the EU always had better hand in the negotiations and they always knew it. UK was always going to face a trade-off between regulatory autonomy & market access. Likely outcome is that we’re going to pay a very high price in terms of losing market access.