No. The EU perfectly knows a no-deal outcome is still possible. That’s why they’ve published more than 100 no-deal technical notices so that businesses & individuals prepare. Being cautiously optimistic about a reaching deal does not mean EU think it will happen. https://twitter.com/domwalsh13/status/1297451356287115265

2. UK cd certainly blame no-deal on EU. But doubt that everyone in UK or EU wd be so quick to jump to same conclusion. Many ppl will see it as a failure on both sides to compromise. Or blame gov for not agreeing to more time for talks.

3. No-deal is really not great for trust. And that matters for 2 reasons; first, no deal means EU granting unilateral measures for all those things that can’t be covered by so-called WTO model. And if political relations turn really sour, EU measures are likely to be more limited

[if you are interested, @instituteforgov has looked at how different deal vs. no deal looks like for different sectors: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/future-relationship-brexit-deal]

4. Even with no-deal, UK & EU wd have to come back to the negotiating table at some point. No-deal fallout & blame will make « picking up where we left off » harder if not impossible. Trust matters, a lot.

5. Don’t think EU have ever thought they’d get everything they want including on fish & LPF. But their question to UK is and remains the same: if you want high level access to our market in certain areas, you need to follow our (or similar) rules *or* agree governance structure

6. UK wants liberty to diverge (absolutely fine) but also, until now, limited governance structure (bit problematic for EU). That’s why EU wants more clarity on UK subsidy regime; to see what is & might be possible.

7. Finally, it is and remains a negotiation. Both sides know they need to compromise, the question is not really how but when. Either side holding out as long as they can. In meantime, preparing for all eventualities, including no-deal outcome, is sensible & necessary. END.

8. One more thought: EU does take UK’s threat that it cd walk away seriously; but similarly, UK should take EU’s threat that it will protect SM (in its integrity) seriously. Both UK & EU want a deal but not at all costs. And imo, negotiators on both sides know this. END.

(Also - to be clear - my thread was generally about article, rather than @DomWalsh13’a tweet. Dom has done, and continues to do, stellar work to disentangle Brexit intricacies!).