1. Interesting - I said yesterday I think government will ultimately agree to a bare bones suboptimal Brexit deal. Here, based on article by @ShippersUnbound , @Sime0nStylites argues that no deal may happen because UK government are in fact MORE incompetent than EU believe. https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1297440316832841728

2. There is another potential 'fallacy' or assumption one could identify in this reasoning, identified in a famous book on the Cuban Missile Crisis - "Essence of Decision". It's called the "Rational Actor Model".

3. The assumption in the Rational Actor Model is that Governments act like individuals. They have a goal in mind and they behave in a way that they think will optimise their chances of achieving this goal. In this case a no-deal Brexit.

4. There are other ways of analysing how particular outcomes happen. One is the "Organisational Process Model" - essentially governments are complex organisations and competing bureaucracies and structures within government lead to the outcome.

5. Another is the "Government Politics Model", which I think may apply here. The outcome is best understood like a sort of Medieval court, with different actors jostling for power and producing a sub-optimal outcome.

6. I think if the Government Politics Model is the best framework to understand this government, then I may disagree with myself and a no deal Brexit may indeed be the outcome.