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Those 81 children (0-14yrs) are on top of 100 cases in the 1st fortnight of August.
Cases by month (children 0-14 years old):
April: 257
May: 248
June: 35
July: 56
August: 181
There are a number of interesting discussions for parents/teachers when you dig deeper into this. https://twitter.com/Evie_Nevin/status/1297152502425628674
Cases by month (children 0-14 years old):
April: 257
May: 248
June: 35
July: 56
August: 181
There are a number of interesting discussions for parents/teachers when you dig deeper into this. https://twitter.com/Evie_Nevin/status/1297152502425628674
Important facts:
Hospital admissions by month (children 0-14 years old):
March: 9
April: 15
May: 12
June: 1
July: 5
August: 0
ICU admissions by month (children 0-14 years old):
March: 0
April: 0
May: 1
June: 1
July: 0
August: 0
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_18082020%20-%20Website.pdf
Hospital admissions by month (children 0-14 years old):
March: 9
April: 15
May: 12
June: 1
July: 5
August: 0
ICU admissions by month (children 0-14 years old):
March: 0
April: 0
May: 1
June: 1
July: 0
August: 0
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_18082020%20-%20Website.pdf
First point to reiterate as always:
Total cases (children 0-14yrs): 737
Deaths: 0
Case Fatality Rate: 0%
If death is main concern (and it should be), that's reassuring.
Beyond that there's a heap of interesting questions, some of which have a wide range of possible answers.
Total cases (children 0-14yrs): 737
Deaths: 0
Case Fatality Rate: 0%
If death is main concern (and it should be), that's reassuring.
Beyond that there's a heap of interesting questions, some of which have a wide range of possible answers.
1. Why are there 181 cases in August when there were only 56 in July?
Well, this one is very simple to answer.
The 14-day incidence of new cases on July 11th was 3.6 per 100,000 and is now 26.2 per 100,000.
More cases in children in August - because more infection everywhere.
Well, this one is very simple to answer.
The 14-day incidence of new cases on July 11th was 3.6 per 100,000 and is now 26.2 per 100,000.
More cases in children in August - because more infection everywhere.
2. How did 257 cases in April lead to 15 hospital admissions but 151 cases in August leads to 0 admissions?
The simplest explanation is "more testing".
Tests completed:
1st 3 weeks of April: 79,000
1st 3 weeks of August: 124,200
The simplest explanation is "more testing".
Tests completed:
1st 3 weeks of April: 79,000
1st 3 weeks of August: 124,200
Aggressive testing of close contacts in August is likely picking up a raft of asymptomatic cases in children, who feel perfectly healthy.
Whereas in April, testing was targeted at kids presenting at hospitals or GP's with symptoms, and less likely to pick up asymptomatic cases.
Whereas in April, testing was targeted at kids presenting at hospitals or GP's with symptoms, and less likely to pick up asymptomatic cases.
In practice, this suggests a significant number of children were close contacts of workers in meat plants & tested positive despite not feeling unwell at all - or not clinically unwell enough to be admitted into hospital.
3. Is there anything that could lead to increasing hospital admissions in children?
Well, early studies in Wuhan showed children who were co-infected with both Covid and Influenza A/B, were more likely to be hospitalised.
**Flu vaccine is super important for kids this winter**.
Well, early studies in Wuhan showed children who were co-infected with both Covid and Influenza A/B, were more likely to be hospitalised.
**Flu vaccine is super important for kids this winter**.
Children not getting very sick or dying is great, but then one question on schools becomes: German or South Korean approach?
S. Korea shuts schools and mass-tests everyone when they find a single case.
Germany keeps schools open when there are cases in the school.
S. Korea shuts schools and mass-tests everyone when they find a single case.
Germany keeps schools open when there are cases in the school.
14-day incidence new cases, per 100,000:
Germany: 19.5
South Korea: 5.1
The problem with this comparison is Germany completed 1.7 million tests in last fortnight, while S. Korea completed a mere 160,000.
Germany is testing 5 times more people per capita.
Germany: 19.5
South Korea: 5.1
The problem with this comparison is Germany completed 1.7 million tests in last fortnight, while S. Korea completed a mere 160,000.
Germany is testing 5 times more people per capita.
Intuitively, S. Korean model sounds like a better idea to me but it's too early to say if Germany's plan is failing.
Of the 10 million children in Germany, only 1 has died - a 9-year-old girl in April. That to me suggests they are doing well by their children in the pandemic.
Of the 10 million children in Germany, only 1 has died - a 9-year-old girl in April. That to me suggests they are doing well by their children in the pandemic.
Death is only one parameter of course - and there's plenty of studies showing Covid can affect children in other ways - but death is always most important one.
The goal in a pandemic is to prevent people from dying first and foremost.
The goal in a pandemic is to prevent people from dying first and foremost.
The bigger threat to life facing younger children this winter isn't Covid19, it's Influenza B.
Deaths to July 22nd, USA (0-14yrs):
Influenza B: 138 (in 59 days)
Covid: 36 (in 131 days)
It can't be understated how vital that flu vaccine uptake needs to be this winter.
Deaths to July 22nd, USA (0-14yrs):
Influenza B: 138 (in 59 days)
Covid: 36 (in 131 days)
It can't be understated how vital that flu vaccine uptake needs to be this winter.
But really what you should take from this thread is what happened in that 0-14 age bracket in Ireland in July:
56 cases, 5 hospital admissions, 0 ICU admissions, 0 deaths.
That's fewer than 2 children (out of 1.1 million children) in Ireland testing positive daily.
56 cases, 5 hospital admissions, 0 ICU admissions, 0 deaths.
That's fewer than 2 children (out of 1.1 million children) in Ireland testing positive daily.
The absolute safest way for children to attend school is wider society reducing infection in the community.
We did it before, we reduced our 14-day incidence from a huge 149.7 per 100,000 in April all the way to 3.6 per 100,000 in July.
We can collectively do it again.
We did it before, we reduced our 14-day incidence from a huge 149.7 per 100,000 in April all the way to 3.6 per 100,000 in July.
We can collectively do it again.
Whether the Govt have opted for the right plan for schools, I have no idea.
If I was them I'd have gone for South Korea's model - simply because South Korea have more recent history (& expertise) than most in handling respiratory pandemics in schools, with MERS in 2015.
If I was them I'd have gone for South Korea's model - simply because South Korea have more recent history (& expertise) than most in handling respiratory pandemics in schools, with MERS in 2015.
The counter-argument is S. Korea have now had 60+ school outbreaks in past 2 months - but with 0 ICU admissions and 0 deaths - so while no model will be perfect, theirs is also preventing major illness in children.
Anyway, hope some of those facts and discussion was helpful.
Anyway, hope some of those facts and discussion was helpful.
