Thoughts: I used to think that it was extremely unlikely that China would invade the democratic nation of Taiwan.
My thinking was the CCP is stupid but not suicidal, and that Taiwan was a ruse to give people a sense of nationalist purpose.
My thinking has however changed.

Part of the obsession with Taiwan is that obviously it's a much better place to live than China. That violates the entire national narrative of CCP rule being so so great. So there's a need to drag it down, an aggressive form of leveling, just like what we have seen in HK.

At the official level, Taiwan's general awesomeness is an embarrassment because obviously CCP rule sucks compared to Taiwan's system.
On a popular level, there is jealousy- it is not so much that Taiwan is a sacred piece of soil that needs to be recaptured...

but rather that life in Taiwan is obviously quite pleasant and there is a jealousy sort of like: how did these people manage to avoid everything we have been put through?
This resentment is then externalized in the desire to occupy and thereby level Taiwan with China.

So, the desire to "unify" actually comes from a quite perverse line of thinking. Yet it is a line of thinking that has a deep resonance in Chinese society today.

The possibility of turning this type of twisted thinking into action really needs to restrained by the international community. However, such restraint has been completely absent.

The CCP mowed down citizens in its capital in 1989, persecuted a qigong based religion just because it was popular, forced Tibetans into a situation where they self-immolated, built concentration camps in Xinjiang and engaged in literal genocide, and destroyed Hong Kong.

The international community's responses to these crimes were far too weak. Often ignoring, and at the most expressing concern, the message that the CCP received is that it can basically do anything, the most horrible things imaginable, with no international repercussions.

They even covered up and spread around the world a virus that has killed hundreds of thousands and destroyed the economy and so many lives, but people have already completely forgotten about holding the leadership in any way accountable for this disaster.

I thus have begun to worry that the twisted ideology of unification combined with the pathetic response of the global community to all these crimes could give the CCP the mistaken impression that they can invade Taiwan without any blowback.

In sum, I find myself increasingly worried that the CCP could make a major strategic miscalculation and attack Taiwan
I think the global community of democracies needs to make 100% clear that this would be completely unacceptable and will result in the end of the CCP if attempted