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22 Aug: India crossed 3M reported #COVID19 cases & 56846 deaths How India got here? Follow this thread for important trends national, state & district level50% of total cases (15M) were added in the past 25 daysOne crore tests done in past 12 days (TPR 7.6%) (1/n)
Cases growing at the rate of 2.4%Active cases are now going up (growth 1.1%). It's important as it can stress our infrastructureTests growing at 2.7%. Close to 45% tests are now Rapid antigenDaily tests close to 9L avg.Daily fatalities now at 1000 levels (2/n)
Good to see growth of tests keeping above that of casesDaily TPR beginning to go up againRapid antigen tests take >50% of testing in many states now including Delhi, Kerala, Andhra, Karnataka etc. Some are not utilizing their full RT-PCR capacity(3/n)
North East, except Meghalaya, brought the daily growth under 3%Majority of the states got TPR<5% nowSouthern states have high TPR despite doing relatively high Rapid Antigen testsVery high TPR in MH & AP is highly worrying, both being very high burden states(4/n)
Although the country has a relatively low mortality rate at 1.9% the variation across states & high MR in some high burden states such as MH & GJ are worryingMortality rates extremely low in almost the whole of NortheastMany eastern states & KL also has very low MR(5/n)
The graph shows the trends in mortality rates for both closed cases (recovered+deceased) and total casesBoth these rates are suppose to converge by the end of pandemicHigh variations in these rates are apparent in most states(6/n)
The daily reported numbers from y'day across states with at least 1000 cases shown hereThe tests per million per day was the highest in Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Gujarat Larger states like UP, WB, MP etc doing low tests per million per day(7/n)
Trends in daily test per million per day and test positive rate across states with at least 5K reported casesStates that are increasing or keeping the TPM steady despite increase in TPR need to change their strategyAssam & Jharkhand here, for example (8/n)
This chart helps you figure out which are the states where active cases are on the rise and needs to be worriedThere is clear sign of declining trends in cases in some states while it is going up in several othersThis is why a peak for India as a whole is far away(9/n)
Top 50 districts in India in terms of total cases56.5% of cases & 69% of deaths now come from these districts The trends in daily cases points to each districts being at varying stages of the pandemicThe virus has indeed spread far & wide(10/n)
TL;DR:
The virus has clearly spread far & wide in the country & even to rural areas
While states are increasing Rapid Antigen tests, it should not be at the cost or replacing RT-PCR
States must report both tests & +ves by test types & by districts (n/n)
The virus has clearly spread far & wide in the country & even to rural areasWhile states are increasing Rapid Antigen tests, it should not be at the cost or replacing RT-PCRStates must report both tests & +ves by test types & by districts (n/n)
