Bertel Schmitt likes to think there is a shortage of Demand

It seems that he no longer understands the Automobile Market

Let’s help him out with a reality check . . .

1. The Natural Demand for automobiles is greater than 100 million units per year

2. But ICEVs are no longer the Vehicles of the Future

- and instead have already entered Terminal Decline since 2017

3. There are 1,500 million vehicles on the road today that will need replacing within the next 20~25 years

- and whether you like it or not BEVs are the only sustainable replacement

4. We could be already replacing those ICEVs at the rate of 100+ million per year if only the Battery Supply was already available to support it

5. Instead Demand is going to have to wait on Supply for essentially the next 10~15 years until Battery Production can catch up with the market’s needs

- AND THIS IS WAY TOO SLOW

- because OEMs have been way too slow

6. We must therefore anticipate that Tesla’s Capacity planning will accelerate even faster than we or they are expecting today

7. Especially in terms of building Battery Production capacity

- and remember that this chart does NOT include Energy Storage and Batteries needed for other large scale applications including watercraft and aircraft

- which can easily DOUBLE the outlook shown here

8. When the Mission is CRITICAL

- and the competition is moving TOO SLOWLY

- we should expect the MARKET LEADER to move faster to FILL THE VOID

9. There is NO-ONE ELSE who can do it

- DON’T DOUBT THE VIBE

@elonmusk

10. Wait for VW you say ?

- VW has only made a total of 150,000 BEVs cumulatively to date compared to Tesla at more than 1,100,000

- VW only expects that number to pass 1,000,000 in 2023

- VW only expects that number to reach 1,500,000 by 2025

11. And VW only expects that number to reach 20,000,000 by 2030

- that will represent barely 5% of the expected installed base at that time

12. No. We cannot wait for VW

- nor can we wait for any other Legacy Automaker already compromised with the burden of ICEV sales

- the market will be filled by new upstart BEV-focused companies

- mostly out of China

- and maybe including the Chinese partners of Legacy OEMs

13. So Bertel Schmitt worries about Tesla building 2 million units of capacity

- go ahead and worry

- but just recognize that the number is too small

- not too big

14. Best to count it differently :

- Fremont for 1 million

- Shanghai for 2 million

- Brandenburg for 3 million

- Austin for 4 million

This will really be Manufacturing 4.0

Those 10 million units of evolution still just get us halfway to the volume of 2030

- call it 2027