1) Eclipsed by the tragic news of the #COVID19 death of a 19-year-old Repentigny student Friday were two troubling and inter-connected developments. In this thread, I will explain what they are and what they could mean for Quebecers yearning for an end to the #pandemic.

2) The first bit of news was a statement by the head of the World Health Organization Friday that he hoped the #pandemic could be over in less than two years. For some people who’ve endured confinement measures since March, having to wait at least another year may be unbearable.

3) The second development was a CROP survey, published in @LP_LaPresse, revealing a disturbing level of vaccine hesitancy in the face of the #pandemic. The survey found that 35% of respondents preferred to wait when a vaccine becomes available and 15% would refuse it.

4) Given that seroprevalence studies have shown relatively low rates of antibodies in populations around the world, we'll likely have to live with #COVID19 until a vaccine becomes available, with the most optimistic scenarios predicting this might happen as early as next spring.

5) But if those who are vaccine hesitant or outright anti-vaxx raise fears in Quebec when a vaccine becomes available, the province might not reach the appropriate level of immunity in the population to stop the highly contagious #coronavirus in its tracks.

6) And until an effective vaccine becomes available, public health authorities will likely have to scramble to contain future outbreaks in schools, the workplace, in bars and many other settings for months to come. People will have to wear face coverings for months to come.

7) In the meantime, Montreal reported its fourth daily increase in new #COVID19 cases in as many days, 36, as the orange line in the chart below indicates. It should be noted, however, that this is occurring amid high levels of #coronavirus screening in the population.

8) At the neighborhood level, a couple of health districts reported more than a handful of cases: Côte-des-Neiges, Parc-Extension and downtown (total 8), as well as the southwest borough (7). The chart below shows a different figure, 43, the result of adding stats retroactively.

9) Montreal declared one #COVID19 fatality Saturday. To put that figure in context, Montreal’s single-day record was on May 7 when the city reported 104 deaths. But the death toll in the metropolis now stands at a colossal 3,466 in under six months. End of thread and stay safe.