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What’s happening in Belarus matters to U.S. security. And Trump and his team are fumbling this moment (largely by kowtowing to Putin and staying on the sidelines).
1/ A THREAD on what's happening in Belarus, why it matters, and what the U.S. should do.
1/ A THREAD on what's happening in Belarus, why it matters, and what the U.S. should do.
2/ For the last 11 days Belarusians have been engaged in the largest protest for democracy in their country's history after President Lukashenko tried to steal the election. Strikes are crippling the economy, and a sense of pride and unity is sweeping the nation.
3/ Lukashenko has detained and allegedly tortured protestors. Rumors are that Russian forces are readying a big move on his behalf.
The movement hasn’t subsided though. They are demanding Lukashenko’s resignation, the release of political prisoners and new elections.
The movement hasn’t subsided though. They are demanding Lukashenko’s resignation, the release of political prisoners and new elections.
4/ All this matters because:
a) America should always promote the spread of democracy (more democracies makes the world safer); and
b) our counter Kremlin strategy must involve assuring people living on Russia’s periphery can choose their own fate freely.
a) America should always promote the spread of democracy (more democracies makes the world safer); and
b) our counter Kremlin strategy must involve assuring people living on Russia’s periphery can choose their own fate freely.
5/ Trump has done next to nothing. He hasn’t spoken up on behalf of peaceful protest. He hasn’t called on Putin to stand down. He hasn’t reached out to the EU to craft a joint strategy.
He has left the protestors adrift and this ultimately helps both Lukashenko and Putin.
He has left the protestors adrift and this ultimately helps both Lukashenko and Putin.
6/ So what should we do?
First, work w the Europeans to sanction Lukashenko and key allies.
I’m generally a skeptic of sanctions’ utility, but in this case it would be a targeted, meaningful sign of which side we are on. But we should only do it with the EU.
First, work w the Europeans to sanction Lukashenko and key allies.
I’m generally a skeptic of sanctions’ utility, but in this case it would be a targeted, meaningful sign of which side we are on. But we should only do it with the EU.
7/ Second, make clear to Putin that we will not accept a Kremlin-led military move.
We didn’t see Crimea coming early enough to stop it. We can learn lessons here and take steps (again, w Europe) to take a tougher line.
We didn’t see Crimea coming early enough to stop it. We can learn lessons here and take steps (again, w Europe) to take a tougher line.
8/ But remember, Belarus is unique - it’s not Ukraine. Lukashenko and Putin have a fraught relationship. Nuanced diplomacy can take advantage of this.
And the protestors aren’t asking to join the EU. So the stakes aren’t as high for Putin here. Again, another tactical advantage.
And the protestors aren’t asking to join the EU. So the stakes aren’t as high for Putin here. Again, another tactical advantage.
