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The Real Estate Gods Must be Crazy
Stealing the title of a charming 1980 movie about a Coke bottle falling from the sky, I am giving some thought to nearly 3 months of a really odd real estate market in Ontario
Some of what's happening is really easy to understand
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Stealing the title of a charming 1980 movie about a Coke bottle falling from the sky, I am giving some thought to nearly 3 months of a really odd real estate market in Ontario
Some of what's happening is really easy to understand
2/
Pent up demand is obvious
Lock people up for nearly 2.5 months and they need to buy stuff they couldn't
A bank exec told me July was an all time record for their car financing division
Couldn't buy cars for 2 months need to catch up
Guess same can be said for houses
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Lock people up for nearly 2.5 months and they need to buy stuff they couldn't
A bank exec told me July was an all time record for their car financing division
Couldn't buy cars for 2 months need to catch up
Guess same can be said for houses
3/
What else drives this RE market?
Crazy low mortgage rates
Desire to have more space
Work from home forever
Can't travel = need cottage
Combine these factors with the RE supply issue in parts of Ontario and prices go up
But there are some crazy parts to this boom
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Crazy low mortgage rates
Desire to have more space
Work from home forever
Can't travel = need cottage
Combine these factors with the RE supply issue in parts of Ontario and prices go up
But there are some crazy parts to this boom
4/
There's a frigging economic disaster going on
Massive Unemployment
Travel, Tourism, Hotel, Restaurant, Bar, Convention, Fitness Center, Movies, long list
And while some are restarting its very slow going
This means some folks should be adding to RE Inventory by selling
5/
Massive Unemployment
Travel, Tourism, Hotel, Restaurant, Bar, Convention, Fitness Center, Movies, long list
And while some are restarting its very slow going
This means some folks should be adding to RE Inventory by selling
5/
But they are not because of Mortgage Deferral, Loan Deferral, CERB, CEWS, $40K zero interest loan if you have a company registered
And just so we don't forget immigration and foreign students will be at a modern low for the next 12 months
So its a bit of a RE fantasy land
6/
And just so we don't forget immigration and foreign students will be at a modern low for the next 12 months
So its a bit of a RE fantasy land
6/
We had a huge RE price run up in 2015 - 2016 maybe 30% in 18 months in some areas
Followed by a 15% price drop in 2018 in some areas
I am guessing some areas are up 15% to 20% so far in 2020
There is a big difference between 2016 and today
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Followed by a 15% price drop in 2018 in some areas
I am guessing some areas are up 15% to 20% so far in 2020
There is a big difference between 2016 and today
7/
2016 had a huge element of speculation
Old houses to tear down and flip
Old houses in gentrifying neighborhoods to hold a year and flip
Semis to rent for a year and flip
That's not happening now, people are buying homes to live in long term
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Old houses to tear down and flip
Old houses in gentrifying neighborhoods to hold a year and flip
Semis to rent for a year and flip
That's not happening now, people are buying homes to live in long term
8/
One concern is many are First Time Home Buyers buying on bid up prices which has to be worrying just as @ewsiddall has pointed out
So it does seem crazy but time will tell, a vaccine could change unemployment fast, immigration and foreign students will return some day
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So it does seem crazy but time will tell, a vaccine could change unemployment fast, immigration and foreign students will return some day
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Ontario RE has a factual long term upside
But when Federal financial supports vastly reduce next year what happens?
Might be crazier
But when Federal financial supports vastly reduce next year what happens?
Might be crazier
