this is a great graphic from @LaffersNapkin

consider what this means if you do random testing among mildly or asymptomatic people

they are (or were) contagious for 10 days, max.

they can test PCR + from non viable viral fragments for 80.

so even a perfect test is 88% false +

obviously, we're assuming random mixing here, but on asymptomatic people in random groups, like, say, college students coming back to school, that's exactly what it would look like.

late in an epidemic, it could actually be much higher false positives.

PCR + does not mean you have viable virus, are sick, are contagious, or ever were.

it means they found viral DNA sections and the tests are extremely sensitive.

viral fragments enter your system from normal cell necrosis for months.

and these tests have false positives in the 8%ish range anyhow. so the likelihood that an asymptomatic student is really sick is well under 10% even with a + test and the likelihood of being contagious even lower.

the infection window is quite narrow.

universities are wetting their collective pants and locking up kids and cancelling classes over test results that are 90-97% meaningless.

it's an embarrassment.

any med school dean who is not bellowing this at school presidents with a megaphone should be fired.

this is what happens when universities stop being centers of learning and become centers of indoctrination, virtue signalling, and liability fear.

and it's easy to fix.

1. enact this law nationwide and prevent stupid lawsuits/liability. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1296543273096445961?s=20

2. require any university that accepts federal funding to refund, upon request, the pro-rated fees for school, room, & board to any parent who demands it if in person classes are cancelled.

it's breach of contract.

now see what the schools do.

wanna bet they get back to work?

you can find all the data from CDC here. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html

OK, mea culpa.

i mis-attributed that graphic (it was sent to me in a tagged message)

it was, in fact, created by #RationalGround's own todd lowdon, who has done a lot of great work here.

apologies toddster. my bad. https://twitter.com/tlowdon/status/1295494303364472834?s=20