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THREAD: Chatting with @chrischirp about why the UK hasn’t seen Covid cases rise on the same scale as many other countries.
Has the government actually got something right? Probably not. Instead looks like Brits have decided – of their own accord – to change their behaviour 1/12
Has the government actually got something right? Probably not. Instead looks like Brits have decided – of their own accord – to change their behaviour 1/12
Here’s a survey on Working From Home (reported in the @guardian)
Far more Brits are still working from home, much more than in other European countries. 2/12
Far more Brits are still working from home, much more than in other European countries. 2/12
Meanwhile, here are some numbers from the @FT on retail footfall, showing UK versus other countries. 3/12
And this is the data for hospitality and entertainment based on Google data, again via the @FT. Britain is world-beating in our reluctance to go out to eat and be entertained (though this data is before the Eat Out to Help Out scheme in August). 4/12
This chimes with polling showing that substantial numbers of people are still wary about visiting pubs, bars and restaurants and using public transport from @OpiniumResearch (excludes people who wouldn’t normally visit these places). 5/12
What explains this?
It’s probably partly cultural/structural. It may be easier to WFH in a service-based economy. Meanwhile Britons are more likely than any other Europeans to already shop online so avoiding physical shops is easier. 6/12 https://www.statista.com/statistics/915310/e-commerce-use-of-consumers-in-the-european-union-by-country/
It’s probably partly cultural/structural. It may be easier to WFH in a service-based economy. Meanwhile Britons are more likely than any other Europeans to already shop online so avoiding physical shops is easier. 6/12 https://www.statista.com/statistics/915310/e-commerce-use-of-consumers-in-the-european-union-by-country/
But overall according to @OpiniumResearch, more Britons disapprove of the government’s handling of Covid (49%) than approve (32%).
50% think we are coming out of lockdown too fast, only 12% think it’s too slow. https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-13th-august/ 7/12
50% think we are coming out of lockdown too fast, only 12% think it’s too slow. https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-13th-august/ 7/12
And in a new report from @IpsosMori which comparies levels of trust in Australia, Italy, Britain and the US, Boris Johnson comes out poorly compared to the leaders of Australia and Italy. https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/competence-matters-perceptions-leader-competence-handling-covid-19-tend-mirror-country-experience 8/12
Clearly trust in government and leadership is more of an issue in Britain than in some other countries (unsurprising given the high UK death rate). And this presumably feeds through to British reluctance to go along with government encouragements to resume normal activities. 9/12
But let’s say the government *did* somehow regain some public trust and people felt more comfortable going out more?
The problem is that this makes it more likely that we'll see the same rise in cases that so many other countries are experiencing. 10/12
The problem is that this makes it more likely that we'll see the same rise in cases that so many other countries are experiencing. 10/12
A better solution would be to drive cases right down and implement a really comprehensive Test, Trace and Isolate system to *keep* cases right down. Then people could *genuinely* trust that it was relatively safe to go back to shops, bars and restaurants. 11/12
And this is of course what @chrischirp and @IndependentSage have been saying for a while. ENDS
