1. Through this USPS scandal lots of Qs about the views of rural voters. That's why when a donor volunteered to fund a survey of JUST rural voters I volunteered to admin it, & teamed up w @WinWithJMC, a GOP consultancy to ensure the poll would have as much legitimacy as possible

2. Today we are pleased to release the results of the poll, which features likely voters from rural PA, a key battleground. You can view the results at the @NiskanenCenter website https://www.niskanencenter.org/niskanen-center-jmc-analytics-and-polling-survey-of-rural-voters-on-usps-covid19/

3. Aside from the data highlighted in the call out above, I want to draw your attention to some analyses I conducted that aren't typically done for these types of surveys. I did them to highlight the role, the very powerful role, that partisanship exerts on issue positions.

4. In the paraphrased words of the donor, "I can't believe that partisanship would condition whether someone will realize/admit that they rely on USPS services or experience a disruption in their services." Well, it does. And now you will be able to see it.

5. USPS dependency. Few rural voters wouldn't be highly dependent on USPS services. In retrospect, I wish I could have a do-over on this Q wording to word it more specifically that way. Still, even this weaker wording reveals a pretty high dependency. The party analysis reveals

6. The wording still wouldn't have changed the main driver of responses of low dep responses which, as you can BTW I have constructed this analysis is partyID. Now, its POSSIBLE that Rs DO magically have less dependence, but not likely. More likely, they're reacting to cues

7. The aversion to vote by mail in rural PA is a GOP aversion although we lack time series data on vote by for rural voters bc I GUARANTEE you that the total aversion to vote by mail by R voters is a recent phenomenon and one that GOP campaigns are freaking out about

8. Here's a fun one! Only a 1/4 report noticing a mail slow disruption. No way of knowing if they actually do or if the news/survey is priming. But one is for sure- strong dislike of Donald Trump makes one twice as likely to notice a disruption for some reason.

9. Similarly, even though you live in the boondocks & really need subsidized mail services, you are magically relieved of all concerns about losing them by membership in the Rep Party! (This is what they mean when they say partisanship is a hell of a drug!)

10. Here's 1 though that GOP electeds should pay attention too, bc it means they are vulnerable if they have any rural voters in their districts/states. Voters don't want USPS defunded or privatized & attacks accusing you of can leave you vulnerable. Even R voters are conflicted.

11. These next 2 Qs need to be considered in tandem. 1 asks about approval of Trump & the pandemic handling, the other state electeds (Dem gov) handling of the pandemic. You will see that approval data is really just partisanship (although Trump's performance DOES hold him down).

12. Finally, look at this education divide by party: 4% of Rs support online only. 17% of Ds 5 day a week in-person. That's what we call a start divide.