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To stop major outbreaks - we either need major behavioral change - seems unlikely - need to shutdown the economy again, vaccines (all of which problematic), or we need the federal government to approve and then mass produce simple at home #dailyquicktests
1/ https://twitter.com/j_g_allen/status/1294600163244347392
1/ https://twitter.com/j_g_allen/status/1294600163244347392
These are transmission indicating tests. Not specialized for diagnosing, but simply for telling someone when they might be transmitting virus.
They don’t need to be perfect, they just need to indicate if/when you are transmitting virus, even asymptomatic, and you stay home.
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They don’t need to be perfect, they just need to indicate if/when you are transmitting virus, even asymptomatic, and you stay home.
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If using these tests everyday, or every couple days, and negative, then you still do everything else the same. Social distancing, wear masks, etc. I do not want them@considered as passports to entry, least not yet.
Instead, The power of them is at the community level...
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Instead, The power of them is at the community level...
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If most people are using them in an area where community spread of the virus is high, frequent use by most people will sever transmission chains. This in turn will cause outbreaks to diminish quickly.
Once population spread is greatly reduced, then everyone is safer
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Once population spread is greatly reduced, then everyone is safer
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This is an important point because I hear a lot of people complain that they don’t want a false negative result. They want a perfect transmission indicator. That misses the bigger and more important point!
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If a transmission indicator test only detected superspreaders (with high viral loads) and this stopped most superspreading events, I think we can all agree that that would be a massive victory (superspreaders likely account for a majority of new infections).
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But these tests will do more than just detecting superspreaders. They will catch many many people who are most likely to transmit and on the days they are most likely to transmit.
Stopping most but not all transmissions will effectively stop outbreaks by driving Re very low
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Stopping most but not all transmissions will effectively stop outbreaks by driving Re very low
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This idea isn’t new. It is why vaccines do not need to be 100% effective nor be given to 100% of people in order to completely stop outbreaks.
We just need daily tests that can stop most transmission events...
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We just need daily tests that can stop most transmission events...
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If we can stop most transmission events during an outbreak, the outbreak will die out!
Then everyone is safer and we can dine out again, go to school, go to work etc, with very low risk because the absolute number of cases will be so low everywhere that everyone is safer.
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Then everyone is safer and we can dine out again, go to school, go to work etc, with very low risk because the absolute number of cases will be so low everywhere that everyone is safer.
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So let’s not let the perfect medical diagnostic test get in the way of a damn good transmission indicating #dailyquicktest.
We don’t need anywhere near perfection to bring this epidemic to its knees. We just need federal government to approve and mass produce these tests.
We don’t need anywhere near perfection to bring this epidemic to its knees. We just need federal government to approve and mass produce these tests.
Finally on the video, @j_g_allen did a tremendous job putting it together!!
A small perhaps obvious clarification - they aren’t quite as simple as printing paper, but it is meant to get the point across that the tests can be made in the many millions if the feds get behind it!
A small perhaps obvious clarification - they aren’t quite as simple as printing paper, but it is meant to get the point across that the tests can be made in the many millions if the feds get behind it!
And finally, if you didn’t notice the video in the linked tweet in top of this thread, here is the video:
