Read on Twitter
1. Earlier Transmission
Thousands of cases of SARS-COV-2 circulated undetected in Wuhan early in the pandemic. Specifically, there were 2 undetected SARS-COV-2 cases in Wuhan for every 3 cases of flu in adults, indicating it was spreading in mid-Nov 2019
https://bit.ly/31Y461w
Thousands of cases of SARS-COV-2 circulated undetected in Wuhan early in the pandemic. Specifically, there were 2 undetected SARS-COV-2 cases in Wuhan for every 3 cases of flu in adults, indicating it was spreading in mid-Nov 2019
https://bit.ly/31Y461w
2. News Report:
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/511818-coronavirus-cases-may-have-been-spreading-in-wuhan-and-seattle-weeks-before
Paper:
Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan & Seattle (July)
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2589-5370%2820%2930223-6
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/511818-coronavirus-cases-may-have-been-spreading-in-wuhan-and-seattle-weeks-before
Paper:
Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan & Seattle (July)
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2589-5370%2820%2930223-6
3. Their Wuhan Data is based on an April 2020 Chinese retrospective study of throat swabs of flu patients:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0713-1#Tab1
Table:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0713-1/tables/1
Graphic:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0713-1/figures/1
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0713-1#Tab1
Table:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0713-1/tables/1
Graphic:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0713-1/figures/1
5. Papers Citing this one
1. Identification of COVID-19 Outbreak Signals Prior to Traditional Disease Surveillance System (May 2020)
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3578808
Influenza cases notified in 2019 was significantly higher in comparison to previous years in China.
1. Identification of COVID-19 Outbreak Signals Prior to Traditional Disease Surveillance System (May 2020)
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3578808
Influenza cases notified in 2019 was significantly higher in comparison to previous years in China.
6. "Early spike of influenza was observed in 2019 winter, with a fast-growing period from Nov to Dec, suggesting that COVID-19 cases occurred during Oct & Nov or earlier"
Comparison of COVID-19 outbreak, influenza surveillance & internet search related to âpneumoniaâ & âSARSâ
Comparison of COVID-19 outbreak, influenza surveillance & internet search related to âpneumoniaâ & âSARSâ
7. Back to April 2020 Chinese Paper:
SARS-CoV-2 detection in patients with influenza-like illness
I forgot to add the excel data file
https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41564-020-0713-1/MediaObjects/41564_2020_713_MOESM4_ESM.xlsx
and supplementary data with map of of earliest flu patients who tested positive for SARS-COV-2
https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41564-020-0713-1/MediaObjects/41564_2020_713_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
SARS-CoV-2 detection in patients with influenza-like illness
I forgot to add the excel data file
https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41564-020-0713-1/MediaObjects/41564_2020_713_MOESM4_ESM.xlsx
and supplementary data with map of of earliest flu patients who tested positive for SARS-COV-2
https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41564-020-0713-1/MediaObjects/41564_2020_713_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
8. The map shows the locations of two sentinel hospitals (red cross), Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (black push pin), and registered address for 7 patients
(dull red push pin). Two patients registered out of Wuhan city were not shown (why not?)
(dull red push pin). Two patients registered out of Wuhan city were not shown (why not?)
9. Other Citing:
Using COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate numbers of symptomatic COVID-19 cases in Wuhan prior to the lockdown. (May 2020)
The number of severe but undetected pediatric COVID-19 cases in Wuhan prior to January 23rd, 2020 was 1105 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276025/#SD1
Using COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate numbers of symptomatic COVID-19 cases in Wuhan prior to the lockdown. (May 2020)
The number of severe but undetected pediatric COVID-19 cases in Wuhan prior to January 23rd, 2020 was 1105 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276025/#SD1
10. "the epidemic was far more extensive than reported in January and had likely been spreading in Wuhan for several months before the lockdown. They further highlight the difficulty of determining infection fatality rates from confirmed case counts alone"
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276025/bin/78626-2020.04.26.20075937-1.pdf
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276025/bin/78626-2020.04.26.20075937-1.pdf
11. Wuhan and Environs Map of early Covid-19 Cases
12. Results from a study in Catalonia, Spain from 2020 June show no earlier cases detected thus contradicting the anomalous Barcelona Sewage Study by @BoschUB https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7287416/
13. More Details on the Catalonian Study
A total of 170 samples from the respiratory tract were analyzed, 30% belonged to pediatric patients (median age: 2 years & 53% of adult samples belonged to women (median age: 70 years)
A total of 170 samples from the respiratory tract were analyzed, 30% belonged to pediatric patients (median age: 2 years & 53% of adult samples belonged to women (median age: 70 years)
14. Total of 87% of samples were positive for common respiratory virus (36% influenza virus, 17% rhinovirus, 9% coronavirus, 6% respiratory syncytial virus, 12% other respiratory virus & 20% co-infection or 2+ respiratory virus) In none of the samples SARS-CoV-2 was detected!
15. In a Chinese study similar to ours (first tweets in this thread) it was described that SARS-CoV-2 virus was undetectably circulating camouflaged among flu cases. In our case, the virus was not detected in any of the tested samples.
