1) Canada’s chief public health officer warned on Friday of a possible second peak in #COVID19 infections this autumn that has the potential to overwhelm the health-care system. In this thread, I will again address the controversial topic of projections in the #pandemic.

2) Dr. Theresa Tam urged public health authorities across the country to plan for “something that’s at least several times worse than your previous experience.” If the worse-case scenario were applied to Quebec, the consequences would be catastrophic.

3) Some Montreal hospitals have been busy building extra capacity to handle an overflow of patients in the event of a calamitous second wave. However, Quebec has regrettably not embarked on a plan to improve the ventilation in public schools set to reopen in two weeks’ time.

4) Under the best-case scenario unveiled by Dr. Tam, Canada would be subjected to a “slow burn” of #COVID19 cases, rising slightly in October. Quebec’s own projections have turned out to be unduly pessimistic, but that’s because they likely did have an impact on public behavior.

5) British Columbia released its own projections on Thursday that warn of a second #COVID19 wave as early as September, even bigger than the first last March. Perhaps it’s time Quebec’s Institut national de santé publique produce another set of projections, the sooner the better.

6) Across the province, #COVID19 outbreaks are still occurring in a variety of settings. A ninth worker has tested positive at the Costco Lebourgneuf in the Quebec City region, leading to long lines outside a testing centre on Friday. The store has been disinfected.

7) A business in the town of Saint-Gabriel-de-Brandon, in the Lanaudière region, was hit with an eight-person outbreak. It was second #COVID19 cluster to be reported in the tourist town in as many weeks. In the first outbreak, 20 workers in another business tested positive.

8) In Saint-Charles Borromée, also in the Lanaudière region, the outbreak at an eldercare home grew by three to 23 infected residents in addition to three employees. Yet on Friday, the regional health authority posted 17 cases, the same as Thursday. Again, why the discrepancy?

9) And on Thursday, Health Minister Christian Dubé denounced as “dangerous” a Laval house party on Saturday that attracted 30 people, resulting in at least five confirmed cases of #COVID19. Authorities are now scrambling to retrace contacts to limit the contagion.

10) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 33 #COVID19 cases Friday, down from 47 the day before. The metropolis did not declare any deaths. But the number of patients treated in intensive care units inched up by two to 25 across Quebec, the highest total since July 9 (27). End of thread.