Read on Twitter
1/29
Greetings, folks! Your friendly, neighborhood statistics professor here
with another tweet thread about #ElectionMath!
Subject: COORDINATING THE LEFT: A Strategy to Bring Liberals & Progressives Together
[THREAD]
Greetings, folks! Your friendly, neighborhood statistics professor here
with another tweet thread about #ElectionMath!Subject: COORDINATING THE LEFT: A Strategy to Bring Liberals & Progressives Together
[THREAD]
2/29
I’ve seen an increase in arguments among those of us on the left about the upcoming general election. For the consideration of folks on the left, the following is a strategy you can choose to adopt if you like that would result in achieving our goals by working together.
I’ve seen an increase in arguments among those of us on the left about the upcoming general election. For the consideration of folks on the left, the following is a strategy you can choose to adopt if you like that would result in achieving our goals by working together.
3/29
For this I am splitting The Left into two subgroups: Liberals and Progressives. Libs are center to mid-left and Progs are mid-left to far left. Note: not all members of The Left are Democrats. For example, many on the far left are registered Green or are independent voters.
For this I am splitting The Left into two subgroups: Liberals and Progressives. Libs are center to mid-left and Progs are mid-left to far left. Note: not all members of The Left are Democrats. For example, many on the far left are registered Green or are independent voters.
4/29
Liberals & Progressives have common goals but differ in their priorities. For Liberals, the primary goal is to elect Biden. For Progressives, the primary goal is to pass popular progressive policies like #MedicareForAll that are supported by a majority of democratic voters.
Liberals & Progressives have common goals but differ in their priorities. For Liberals, the primary goal is to elect Biden. For Progressives, the primary goal is to pass popular progressive policies like #MedicareForAll that are supported by a majority of democratic voters.
5/29
That’s not to say that Libs don’t support progressive policies like #MedicareForAll; most of them do. It’s also not to say Progs want Trump to get re-elected; that also is not the case for most of them. It’s the order in which we prioritize these goals that’s different.
That’s not to say that Libs don’t support progressive policies like #MedicareForAll; most of them do. It’s also not to say Progs want Trump to get re-elected; that also is not the case for most of them. It’s the order in which we prioritize these goals that’s different.
6/29
What is important to note here is that our goals are not mutually exclusive. Liberals and Progressives can work together to achieve both of these goals; but we will only be successful if we work TOGETHER. So in the spirit of cooperation, please consider the following:
What is important to note here is that our goals are not mutually exclusive. Liberals and Progressives can work together to achieve both of these goals; but we will only be successful if we work TOGETHER. So in the spirit of cooperation, please consider the following:
7/29
Let’s start with the Liberal goal of electing Biden. To do that he needs to win at least 270 electoral votes.
Here’s how that works: there are 538 electoral votes distributed among the 50 states + DC, kinda-sorta by population, based on the last decennial census from 2010.
Let’s start with the Liberal goal of electing Biden. To do that he needs to win at least 270 electoral votes.
Here’s how that works: there are 538 electoral votes distributed among the 50 states + DC, kinda-sorta by population, based on the last decennial census from 2010.
8/29
Because states are allotted a different number of electoral votes, and because electoral votes are winner-take-all based on a plurality of popular votes in each state (except for NE & ME), the strategy to elect Biden will be highly dependent on which states he wins.
Because states are allotted a different number of electoral votes, and because electoral votes are winner-take-all based on a plurality of popular votes in each state (except for NE & ME), the strategy to elect Biden will be highly dependent on which states he wins.
9/29
For Progressives the goal is more complicated. They know the GOP won’t pass popular progressive policies; but, as has become clear from recent votes for the Democratic Party platform (if it wasn’t already obvious), the Democratic party has no interest in passing them either.
For Progressives the goal is more complicated. They know the GOP won’t pass popular progressive policies; but, as has become clear from recent votes for the Democratic Party platform (if it wasn’t already obvious), the Democratic party has no interest in passing them either.
10/29
But there is one party that has a platform full of popular progressive policies (including #MedicareForAll): The Green Party.
Since Progressives are underrepresented in Congress, empowering the Green party to represent them would force the Democratic party to move left.
But there is one party that has a platform full of popular progressive policies (including #MedicareForAll): The Green Party.
Since Progressives are underrepresented in Congress, empowering the Green party to represent them would force the Democratic party to move left.
11/29
The Green Party won’t win the presidential election. However, according to FEC rules if a 3rd party candidate gets 5% or more of the nationwide popular vote (~7M votes) they get federal funding and ballot access for the next election cycle: 2022 midterms & 2024 general.
The Green Party won’t win the presidential election. However, according to FEC rules if a 3rd party candidate gets 5% or more of the nationwide popular vote (~7M votes) they get federal funding and ballot access for the next election cycle: 2022 midterms & 2024 general.
12/29
The 5% rule is a direct proportion of all votes cast nationwide, so it doesn’t matter which states those votes come from. We can strategize our votes based on what state we live in so we can get Biden elected AND force the Democratic party to adopt progressive policies.
The 5% rule is a direct proportion of all votes cast nationwide, so it doesn’t matter which states those votes come from. We can strategize our votes based on what state we live in so we can get Biden elected AND force the Democratic party to adopt progressive policies.
13/29
I’ll divide states into 3 groups: solid blue, solid red, & toss-up. A solid blue state is where Biden is sure to win, a solid red state is where Trump is sure to win, & a toss-up state is where there’s no clear leader. Not sure about your state? I’ll explain toward the end.
I’ll divide states into 3 groups: solid blue, solid red, & toss-up. A solid blue state is where Biden is sure to win, a solid red state is where Trump is sure to win, & a toss-up state is where there’s no clear leader. Not sure about your state? I’ll explain toward the end.
14/29
Electoral votes in each state (except NE & ME) are awarded as winner-take-all based on a plurality of the votes. That means the winner just has to do better than their competitors. This also means that it doesn’t matter by how much a candidate wins, just that they win.
Electoral votes in each state (except NE & ME) are awarded as winner-take-all based on a plurality of the votes. That means the winner just has to do better than their competitors. This also means that it doesn’t matter by how much a candidate wins, just that they win.
15/29
Consider a blue state like CA. As of 8/14, http://270towin.com has Trump polling at 27% (rounded for ease) and Biden at 64%. For Biden to win all of CA’s electoral votes, he just needs to get 28% of the vote, at minimum. This leaves 45% of votes cast as “wasted” votes.
Consider a blue state like CA. As of 8/14, http://270towin.com has Trump polling at 27% (rounded for ease) and Biden at 64%. For Biden to win all of CA’s electoral votes, he just needs to get 28% of the vote, at minimum. This leaves 45% of votes cast as “wasted” votes.
16/29
A “wasted” vote is a vote cast that does not affect the outcome of an election. For example, every vote for Biden in CA beyond the 28% minimum needed is a “wasted” vote. Contrary to popular belief, votes cast for a third party are not “wasted” votes because of the 5% rule.
A “wasted” vote is a vote cast that does not affect the outcome of an election. For example, every vote for Biden in CA beyond the 28% minimum needed is a “wasted” vote. Contrary to popular belief, votes cast for a third party are not “wasted” votes because of the 5% rule.
17/29
Since it’s clear lots more than 28% of CA voters will vote blue, CA is a safe state for Biden and therefore a state in which voting Green is safe. In other words, Californians who vote Green can be confident that their vote will not negatively impact Biden’s win in CA.
Since it’s clear lots more than 28% of CA voters will vote blue, CA is a safe state for Biden and therefore a state in which voting Green is safe. In other words, Californians who vote Green can be confident that their vote will not negatively impact Biden’s win in CA.
18/29
Now consider a red state like KY. As of 8/6, http://270towin.com has Trump polling at 56% and Biden at 37%. For Trump to win the state he needs at minimum 38% of the vote. This leaves 25% of votes “wasted” in that they will have no effect on the outcome of the election.
Now consider a red state like KY. As of 8/6, http://270towin.com has Trump polling at 56% and Biden at 37%. For Trump to win the state he needs at minimum 38% of the vote. This leaves 25% of votes “wasted” in that they will have no effect on the outcome of the election.
19/29
Since it’s clear lots more than 38% of KY voters will vote for Trump, KY is a safe state for Trump and so it's a state in which voting Green in safe. In fact, in a solid red state that Biden will definitely lose, the best strategy would be for Libs and Progs to vote Green.
Since it’s clear lots more than 38% of KY voters will vote for Trump, KY is a safe state for Trump and so it's a state in which voting Green in safe. In fact, in a solid red state that Biden will definitely lose, the best strategy would be for Libs and Progs to vote Green.
20/29
Now consider a toss-up state. In a state where there’s no clear leader, there’s not really such a thing as a wasted vote because these states are not safe states for either major candidate. In that case the best strategy is for both Libs and Progs to vote for Biden.
Now consider a toss-up state. In a state where there’s no clear leader, there’s not really such a thing as a wasted vote because these states are not safe states for either major candidate. In that case the best strategy is for both Libs and Progs to vote for Biden.
21/29
To sum up, the strategy is:
Solid Blue states: Libs vote Blue, Progs vote Green
Solid Red states: Libs & Progs both vote Green
Toss-Up states: Libs & Progs both vote Blue.
Which category a state falls under depends on who you ask, but I’ve got a simple way to figure it out.
To sum up, the strategy is:
Solid Blue states: Libs vote Blue, Progs vote Green
Solid Red states: Libs & Progs both vote Green
Toss-Up states: Libs & Progs both vote Blue.
Which category a state falls under depends on who you ask, but I’ve got a simple way to figure it out.
22/29
This method is dependent on polls and their accuracy but does use an extra margin of error to take into account that polls aren’t always accurate. Also, since poll numbers change over time it’s worth checking this regularly as new polling data is published and available.
This method is dependent on polls and their accuracy but does use an extra margin of error to take into account that polls aren’t always accurate. Also, since poll numbers change over time it’s worth checking this regularly as new polling data is published and available.
23/29
Use a resource like http://270towin.com to get polling info for your state. Select the most recent poll and record the following:
b = Biden’s percent, t = Trump’s percent, m = margin of error (the number after ±)
Then calculate the value of v:
v = 100% – 2*t – m
Use a resource like http://270towin.com to get polling info for your state. Select the most recent poll and record the following:
b = Biden’s percent, t = Trump’s percent, m = margin of error (the number after ±)
Then calculate the value of v:
v = 100% – 2*t – m
24/29
Based on the value of v, determine which kind of state you’re in based on the following:
v > 15%
safe BlueLibs vote Blue, Progs vote Green
0% < v <= 15%Toss-UpLibs and Progs vote Blue
v < 0%safe RedLibs and Progs vote Green
Check new polls as they’re published.
Based on the value of v, determine which kind of state you’re in based on the following:
v > 15%
safe BlueLibs vote Blue, Progs vote Green0% < v <= 15%
Toss-UpLibs and Progs vote Bluev < 0%
safe RedLibs and Progs vote GreenCheck new polls as they’re published.
25/29
If most of The Left adopts this policy, several things will happen:
1. Biden is elected and Trump is out
2. The Green Party achieves the goal of federal funding and ballot access for the next election cycle.
3. The Left will have accomplished both goals by WORKING TOGETHER.
If most of The Left adopts this policy, several things will happen:
1. Biden is elected and Trump is out
2. The Green Party achieves the goal of federal funding and ballot access for the next election cycle.
3. The Left will have accomplished both goals by WORKING TOGETHER.
26/29
So please, Liberals, FUCKING STOP saying stupid shit like “a vote for the Green Party is a vote for Trump!” when someone says they’re voting Green because it just makes you look ignorant and rude. I’ve explained at length why that’s simply not true.
So please, Liberals, FUCKING STOP saying stupid shit like “a vote for the Green Party is a vote for Trump!” when someone says they’re voting Green because it just makes you look ignorant and rude. I’ve explained at length why that’s simply not true.
27/29
Instead, say, “Awesome, I support progressive policies like #MedicareForAll! I’m voting for Biden because I want to make sure Trump doesn’t win and I live in a solid blue/toss up state. I hope if you live in a toss-up state you’ll reconsider, but I support your choice.”
Instead, say, “Awesome, I support progressive policies like #MedicareForAll! I’m voting for Biden because I want to make sure Trump doesn’t win and I live in a solid blue/toss up state. I hope if you live in a toss-up state you’ll reconsider, but I support your choice.”
28/29
Also instead of criticizing Biden (deservedly), Progs can say, “I’d rather have Biden than Trump so I’m glad you will be voting for him; but I’m voting Green because I live in a solid blue/solid red state and my prerogative is progressive policies like #Medicare for all.”
Also instead of criticizing Biden (deservedly), Progs can say, “I’d rather have Biden than Trump so I’m glad you will be voting for him; but I’m voting Green because I live in a solid blue/solid red state and my prerogative is progressive policies like #Medicare for all.”
29/29
I’ve presented this strategy for the consideration of voters on The Left. My purpose is not to dictate to anybody how they should vote, but to present to you a strategy I’ve developed that, if you choose to adopt it, will help us achieve our goals together.
END.
I’ve presented this strategy for the consideration of voters on The Left. My purpose is not to dictate to anybody how they should vote, but to present to you a strategy I’ve developed that, if you choose to adopt it, will help us achieve our goals together.
END.
UPDATE:
I've put together a spreadsheet to help you decide what to do based on where you live. The data is from http://270towin.com and I've used 95% confidence intervals.
Individual state polling info is in the tabs at the bottom.
I hope it helps! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TieRDokDVVplATiM2-KE_v_yEtJ5siPU4NZT_axhmqs/edit?usp=sharing
I've put together a spreadsheet to help you decide what to do based on where you live. The data is from http://270towin.com and I've used 95% confidence intervals.
Individual state polling info is in the tabs at the bottom.
I hope it helps!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TieRDokDVVplATiM2-KE_v_yEtJ5siPU4NZT_axhmqs/edit?usp=sharing
More info about the spreadsheet:
1. If the confidence intervals overlap, the state is a toss up.
2. The second tab includes leaning states, where the overlap is less than or equal to half the margin of error.
3. Only polls within 30 days are included.
4. It updates automatically.
1. If the confidence intervals overlap, the state is a toss up.
2. The second tab includes leaning states, where the overlap is less than or equal to half the margin of error.
3. Only polls within 30 days are included.
4. It updates automatically.
5. For states that say "no data," all polls are over 30 days old (so are out of date).
6. You can view polling data for each state using the tabs at the bottom.
7. I've included both 95% and 90% confidence interval summaries for comparison.
6. You can view polling data for each state using the tabs at the bottom.
7. I've included both 95% and 90% confidence interval summaries for comparison.
