We often exaggerate how important the specific US President and US foreign policy is to Russian decision-making, in particular across the post-Soviet space. The 2008 war with Georgia happened under Bush, and the 2014 invasion of Ukraine under Obama. https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1294352927394537473

In both of those cases, Russia's leadership knew that the US wouldn't use military force and was willing to accept whatever response the US took because it had more significant interests at stake. Instead, Russia's decision-making in this case is based on other factors. 2/

The protests in Ukraine in 2014 centered around closer ties with the EU or Russia, and domestic support for them wasn't unanimous. In Belarus, the primary issues during the protests are: free and fair elections, no more repression, and no more Lukashenko. 3/

As a result, these protests have wide-spread support among different age groups, professions, and cities in all regions of Belarus. So it doesn't present the same threat to Russia, and the Ukraine template of using military force in certain regions wouldn't work in this case. 4/

It doesn't seem anyone in Belarus would welcome a Russian invasion (including the OMON/SOBR officers abusing the protesters), and such an act would only threaten Russia's relationship with Belarus. Not to mention, the protesters have shown that police brutality won't stop them.5/

And there's a reason Russia took a different approach to the 2018 Velvet Revolution in Armenia (in fact, Russia began exporting sophisticated arms like the Su-30SM fighter to Yerevan after this event it never had before) than it did with Ukraine in 2014. 6/

Russia's foreign policies to countries across the post-Soviet space aren't uniform, so applying a template from one country to another isn't appropriate. The underlying factors in Belarus now are quite different than in Ukraine in 2014, so Russia's actions will be different. 7/

And the primary instrument the Obama admin used in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine was sanctions. Well further sanctions were passed against Russia by Congress under Trump (with a veto-proof majority), so Moscow probably thinks a US response would be pretty similar. 8/

@lincolnpigman has a good thread on this as well. 9/ https://twitter.com/lincolnpigman/status/1294355914263343107