As the #Belarus protests spread to factory workers and metro workers, the question is: will Vladimir Putin intervene to crush the protests and keep a fellow dictator in office? Or will he heed the lessons of Ukraine and tread more surreptitiously?

Ukraine had been Russia's closest ally before Putin intervened in 2014. Now Ukraine is lost to Russia for a generation—at least. Belarus is Russia's other "brotherly" ally (read: Slavic). Does he risk losing #Belarus, too?

A key factor here is Trump and the fact that Putin knows that, with Trump in charge, the U.S. will do exactly nothing to punish him if he does intervene in #Belarus. Trump's presidency has emboldened Putin to an alarming extent. The gloves have been off for some time.