As the #Belarus protests spread to factory workers and metro workers, the question is: will Vladimir Putin intervene to crush the protests and keep a fellow dictator in office? Or will he heed the lessons of Ukraine and tread more surreptitiously?

Ukraine had been Russia& #39;s closest ally before Putin intervened in 2014. Now Ukraine is lost to Russia for a generation—at least. Belarus is Russia& #39;s other "brotherly" ally (read: Slavic). Does he risk losing #Belarus, too?

A key factor here is Trump and the fact that Putin knows that, with Trump in charge, the U.S. will do exactly nothing to punish him if he does intervene in #Belarus. Trump& #39;s presidency has emboldened Putin to an alarming extent. The gloves have been off for some time.