I’ve had a number of people ask me for my thoughts on yesterday’s announcement on UAE-Israel agreement. So I slept on it (and then some), and I still see validity in multiple arguments. So here is a thread on some that I think aren’t being heard enough.

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First, a few things that are good:
Preventing annexation. Annexation threatens Israel‘s future as a secure Jewish democratic state, plain and simple.

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Said another way, as one high-level hill staffer said to me: "all it took to secure this agreement with the UAE was Israel agreeing to suspend plans for annexation." That shows how terrible and an impediment annexation truly is.

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As @DanielBShapiro argues, this action further kills the Trump “plan” and provides a foundation to reset back to the traditional international and bipartisan consensus on final status issues. https://twitter.com/DanielBShapiro/status/1293979232973066241?s=20

As @mkoplow argues "If the UAE... is setting annexation as the price of continued engagement, there is little doubt that Israel moving ahead with West Bank annexation will be an even higher barrier to entry when it comes to… Saudi Arabia and Kuwait."
https://twitter.com/mkoplow/status/1294025140163022852

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Michael’s argument serves as a compelling case as to how seemingly inevitable future Arab-Israel agreements can leverage some concessions on Israeli treatment of Palestinians.

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Lastly, I never would have dreamed that I would see this.

6/ https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1294029124789571584?s=20

There are some serious issues that this agreement creates that I also think deserve attention.

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Normalization from the Arab world, in my mind, is the big Israeli prize. Something so precious, it previously was only reserved for a final status agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.

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Annexation is terrible and must be stopped (not just “suspended”), but stopping annexation does not alone create a viable future on the ground. It strikes me that some might argue that opening the door to Arab normalization is “giving away the store” in this context.

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In fact, those who argue against annexation (myself included) regularly say that that status quo is unsustainable. So why would those same people praise an agreement thats seems to give a stamp of approval (or indifference, or minimally look-the-other-way) to that situation?
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It’s one thing to make that cost-benefit analysis for a smaller move, but this opens the door to the normalization from the whole Arab world (Bahrain, Oman, Saudi, etc.) and basically kills the whole Arab Peace Initiative.

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Said in another way, this move could further entrench the status quo and seemingly give Arab blessing to it. This agreement could signal that all UAE wanted was a temporary suspension of annexation, and they are fine with everything else.

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Such action, the argument goes, makes further strides away from a two-state solution by removing one of the biggest motivators & carrots that the current Israeli government has to pursue peace. And we know, when it comes to Israel, carrots are far more effective than sticks.

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Additionally, this agreement marginalizes the Palestinians even more. If we believe peace truly needs to come from an agreement between Israelis and Palestinians, continuing to sideline and marginalize them isn’t going to help.

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You can either complain about a lack of Palestinian leadership and willingness to come to the table, or you can work to undermine them in the peace process, but you can’t do both. That’s called hypocrisy.

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Lastly, this agreement is political, & plays into political interest. There’s an election & we’ve already seen Trump claim he’s made peace. It won’t be long until it makes it into campaign talkers. Never mind its not the same people in his “plan," that part doesn’t matter.

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Netanyahu is down in the polls and may be on the brink of another election. Many are already comparing him to Begin and Rabin. I wonder if this might give him a boost?

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In all, it’s clear that nothing is totally clear. And that the only thing that will truly reveal the real implications of this agreement is time. No matter how emotionally trying, I know I’ll be watching— hope you will too.

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