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1) This week #Macron warned Iran not to interfere in #BeirutBlast - but this may be too late
IRGC Gen Salami:
“All [ #IRGC] capacities have been mobilised to help the Lebanese people…we will be them until the end of this crisis”
Thread: #BeirutBlast view from #Iran
IRGC Gen Salami:
“All [ #IRGC] capacities have been mobilised to help the Lebanese people…we will be them until the end of this crisis”
Thread: #BeirutBlast view from #Iran
2) Last week’s explosion in #Beirut 
has put significant pressure on #Iran’s activities in Lebanon, which are carried out by #Hezbollah –a Shia Islamist militia Iran’s IRGC helped create in 80s to export Islamic Revolution to #Lebanon & destroy the “Zionist regime”( #Israel)
has put significant pressure on #Iran’s activities in Lebanon, which are carried out by #Hezbollah –a Shia Islamist militia Iran’s IRGC helped create in 80s to export Islamic Revolution to #Lebanon & destroy the “Zionist regime”( #Israel)
3)Hezbollah's been 1 of Iran’s most valuable assets. Together with IRGC it's undertaken Iran’s strategic/ideological goals via terrorism, hostage-takings,assassinations, Syria + it's entrenched itself in political institutions.For Hez actions @Levitt_Matt https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/mapping-hezbollahs-worldwide-activities
4)In recent years, there's been growing anti-Iran regime sentiment across #Lebanon , with Hezbollah being viewed as one of the biggest barriers to change. This played out on streets during the Lebanon winter unrest in 2019 
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/11/collapse-iranian-shiism-iraq-lebanon/
, with Hezbollah being viewed as one of the biggest barriers to change. This played out on streets during the Lebanon winter unrest in 2019 https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/11/collapse-iranian-shiism-iraq-lebanon/
5) #Iran carefully responded to 2019 Leb protests (unlike its merciless response to Iraq unrest). #Khamenei called on "those who care in #Lebanon " to "remedy the insecurity & turmoil"- subtle call on Hezb supporters to act, but he appeared less worried about Leb compared to #Iraq
" to "remedy the insecurity & turmoil"- subtle call on Hezb supporters to act, but he appeared less worried about Leb compared to #Iraq
6)But #BeirutBlast's significantly raised stakes for Iran,esp as its prompted global support for change in Leb.Iran knows anger at Hez surging as its viewed as biggest reform barrier+its port activities under scrutiny,esp as Nasrallah prev said he'd use amm nitrate against Israel
7) Iran immediately acted to deflect responsibility from Hezbollah. Just 1 day after blast, Mojtaba Zolnour, Head of #Iran’s Parli Nat-Sec & Foreign Policy Committee claimed: “The explosion in #Lebanon was caused by a fire at an #ISIS weapons warehouse” http://snn.ir/003dWp
was caused by a fire at an #ISIS weapons warehouse” http://snn.ir/003dWp
8)But Macron trip,unrest & resignations has increased Tehran’s angst & escalated its tone.Iran's now peddling a narrative blaming Leb situation on conspiracy orchestrated by “[Sunni]Arab-Zionist-Western Axis”that aims to weaken Hezbollah & Islamic Republic https://www.mehrnews.com/news/4992222/%DA%A9%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8%DB%8C-%D9%88-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B4-%D9%85%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%B1
9) Eg, Iran news outlets claiming that Israel, Saudi, US & West media is aiming to foment unrest in Leb with the goal of creating a negative view of Hez & disarm it. There are also claims the only “winner” of #BeirutExplosion is the "Zionist regime” https://defapress.ir/409859
10) Attacks have also been directed at #Macron trip, which Tehran claims is part of a #US plot aimed to weaken & disarm #Hezbollah by portraying it as a “threat to #Lebanon ’s stability” & the main “obstacle to resolving the economic crisis” https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/rahbordemoaser.ir/fa/amp/news/54216
’s stability” & the main “obstacle to resolving the economic crisis” https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/rahbordemoaser.ir/fa/amp/news/54216
11) Same article states any attempt to reduce #Hezbollah's influence & disarm will fail” as Hez has “v serious influence in the political structure & over Lebanon public opinion.” It claims “the presence of the axis of resistance, esp Hezbollah, has created security in #Lebanon ”
”
12)A narrative also building on emerging "civil war" in Leb at hands of West designed for "global attack against Hez". It claims Macron’s reform call was “green light” for unrest +we'll soon see UNSCR against Hez & a "NATO invasion similar to Libya 2011" https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/1418964/%D8%B3%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%88%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%DA%A9-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87
13) Crucially, this line’s been echoed by #IRGC Quds Force member & fmr Iran amb to Iraq, Hassan Kazemi Qomi. He claims “the enemy seeks to create civil war & delegitimize internal institutions” + claimed #Macron wants to implement “regime change” https://www.irna.ir/news/83903597/%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%81-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%AD%D9%81%D8%B8-%D8%A2%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%B4-%D9%88-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B2%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84%DB%8C-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86
14) Qomi states that “resistance axis & Hezbollah have been targeted” due to explosion by “Saudi media” #US and Zionist regime. He even tries to implicitly blame #BeirutBlast on them,stating:“I can’t judge whether the work was calculated or exploited, but the goal is Hezbollah.”
15) Qomi’s final remarks are esp interesting. He states that when #Nasrallah addressed the “resistance”, he told them “not to worry & be ready”. The #IRGC-QF member states that by this, Nasrallah means “enemy seeks to create a civil war”
16) Iran regime affiliated analysts have also underlined “ #Iran should neutralize the scenarios designed by the #US, Israel & #Saudi with an active & positive political presence & strengthening the resistance in region & not back down.” http://www.isna.ir/news/99052115647/%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B4-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AD%D8%B0%D9%81-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%88-%D8%AA%D8%B6%D8%B9%DB%8C%D9%81-%D8%AC%D8%A7%DB%8C%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1
17) Given this context, #IRGC declaring it has “mobilized to help the Lebanese people” becomes all more important. Iran’s #Shia militias like #Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah have said they will provide“ any assistance to Lebanon & its resistance (Hezbollah).” https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1399/05/16/2322147/%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%AF%D8%B4%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A8%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%81%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%85%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF
18)If situation escalates,Iran’s regime may seek to further inflame sectarian tensions to leverage Shia communities in its favour - as used in Leb/Iraq/Syria.Quotes like“No matter what happens,I will side with my sect” will be music to Khamenei’s ears.See https://nyti.ms/33YffSP
https://nyti.ms/33YffSP
19) At same time, #Iran's been delivering humanitarian aid to Leb, despite huge domestic suffering. One aspect of this is undoubtedly “soft power” related. #Khamenei is seeking to use aid as a mechanism to “buy” some credibility on streets of Leb that #Iran so desperately needs
20) But given context, “humanitarian aid” could also be a good opportunity to exploit legit channels for #IRGC supplies to Hez. In past,IRGC's used humanitarian cover (eg Red Crescent) to transport arms/personnel (eg in Leb,Afgh,Iraq). See @Yossi_Mansharof https://israel-alma.org/2020/06/21/organizations-and-associations-in-the-service-of-quds-force-in-syria/
21) Worth noting that the #IRGC-affiliated, Mahan Air, also landed in #Beirut to deliver aid. Mahan Air has been sanctioned by #US, #Germany & #France for using civilian guise for transportation of IRGC munitions & supplies in region. See @ghoshworld https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-24/iran-u-s-aviation-disaster-barely-averted-over-syria
to deliver aid. Mahan Air has been sanctioned by #US, #Germany & #France for using civilian guise for transportation of IRGC munitions & supplies in region. See @ghoshworld https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-24/iran-u-s-aviation-disaster-barely-averted-over-syria
22)This isn't to suggest that such is currently taking place.But given track record, #West should be wary of such activities & this shouldn't be ruled out. Iran’s Mehr states “Zionists” are “concerned about #Iran aid to Leb” & expansion of “influence” https://www.mehrnews.com/news/4994038/%D8%AA%D9%84-%D8%A2%D9%88%DB%8C%D9%88-%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%87-%DA%A9%D9%85%DA%A9-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%86%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA
23) While it’s unclear how things will play out in Leb, one thing is certain, #Iran’s regime is seriously concerned about the impact on its activities in Leb – & given that Hezbollah is one of its major assets(both ideologically & strategically), it won’t back off without a fight
