1) This week #Macron warned Iran not to interfere in #BeirutBlast - but this may be too lateu2028
IRGC Gen Salami:

“All [ #IRGC] capacities have been mobilised to help the Lebanese people…we will be them until the end of this crisis”

Thread: #BeirutBlast view from #Iran
3)Hezbollah& #39;s been 1 of Iran’s most valuable assets. Together with IRGC it& #39;s undertaken Iran’s strategic/ideological goals via terrorism, hostage-takings,assassinations, Syria + it& #39;s entrenched itself in political institutions.For Hez actions @Levitt_Matt https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/mapping-hezbollahs-worldwide-activities">https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-an...
4)In recent years, there& #39;s been growing anti-Iran regime sentiment across #Lebanon https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt="">, with Hezbollah being viewed as one of the biggest barriers to change. This played out on streets during the Lebanon winter unrest in 2019 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten"> https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/11/collapse-iranian-shiism-iraq-lebanon/">https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/1...
6)But #BeirutBlast& #39;s significantly raised stakes for Iran,esp as its prompted global support for change in Leb.Iran knows anger at Hez surging as its viewed as biggest reform barrier+its port activities under scrutiny,esp as Nasrallah prev said he& #39;d use amm nitrate against Israel
9) Eg, Iran news outlets claiming that Israel, Saudi, US & West media is aiming to foment unrest in Leb with the goal of creating a negative view of Hez & disarm it. There are also claims the only “winner” of #BeirutExplosion is the "Zionist regime” https://defapress.ir/409859 ">https://defapress.ir/409859&qu...
11) Same article states any attempt to reduce #Hezbollah& #39;s influence & disarm will fail” as Hez has “v serious influence in the political structure & over Lebanon public opinion.” It claims “the presence of the axis of resistance, esp Hezbollah, has created security in #Lebanon https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt="">”
13) Crucially, this line’s been echoed by #IRGC Quds Force member & fmr Iran amb to Iraq, Hassan Kazemi Qomi. He claims “the enemy seeks to create civil war & delegitimize internal institutions” + claimed #Macron wants to implement “regime change” https://www.irna.ir/news/83903597/%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%81-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%AD%D9%81%D8%B8-%D8%A2%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%B4-%D9%88-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B2%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84%DB%8C-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86">https://www.irna.ir/news/8390...
14) Qomi states that “resistance axis & Hezbollah have been targeted” due to explosion by “Saudi media” #US and Zionist regime. He even tries to implicitly blame #BeirutBlast on them,stating:“I can’t judge whether the work was calculated or exploited, but the goal is Hezbollah.”
15) Qomi’s final remarks are esp interesting. He states that when #Nasrallah addressed the “resistance”, he told them “not to worry & be ready”. The #IRGC-QF member states that by this, Nasrallah means “enemy seeks to create a civil war”
17) Given this context, #IRGC declaring it has “mobilized to help the Lebanese people” becomes all more important. Iran’s #Shia militias like #Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah have said they will provide“ any assistance to Lebanon & its resistance (Hezbollah).” https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1399/05/16/2322147/%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%AF%D8%B4%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A8%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%81%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%85%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF">https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1...
18)If situation escalates,Iran’s regime may seek to further inflame sectarian tensions to leverage Shia communities in its favour - as used in Leb/Iraq/Syria.Quotes like“No matter what happens,I will side with my sect” will be music to Khamenei’s ears.Seehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten"> https://nyti.ms/33YffSP ">https://nyti.ms/33YffSP&q...
19) At same time, #Iran& #39;s been delivering humanitarian aid to Leb, despite huge domestic suffering. One aspect of this is undoubtedly “soft power” related. #Khamenei is seeking to use aid as a mechanism to “buy” some credibility on streets of Leb that #Iran so desperately needs
20) But given context, “humanitarian aid” could also be a good opportunity to exploit legit channels for #IRGC supplies to Hez. In past,IRGC& #39;s used humanitarian cover (eg Red Crescent) to transport arms/personnel (eg in Leb,Afgh,Iraq). See @Yossi_Mansharof https://israel-alma.org/2020/06/21/organizations-and-associations-in-the-service-of-quds-force-in-syria/">https://israel-alma.org/2020/06/2...
23) While it’s unclear how things will play out in Leb, one thing is certain, #Iran’s regime is seriously concerned about the impact on its activities in Leb – & given that Hezbollah is one of its major assets(both ideologically & strategically), it won’t back off without a fight
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