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Here is a link to the new #COVID-19 modelling from Health Canada so you can follow the briefing about to get underway.
https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases-maladies/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/epidemiological-economic-research-data/update_covid_19_Canada_epidemiology_modelling_20200814.pdf
https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases-maladies/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/epidemiological-economic-research-data/update_covid_19_Canada_epidemiology_modelling_20200814.pdf
The number of new COVId-19 cases reported daily has increased in recent weeks.
Last night’s numbers show total cases in Canada: 121,234
Nationally there are 4,666 active cases, with Quebec and Ontario still the hottest zones.
Last night’s numbers show total cases in Canada: 121,234
Nationally there are 4,666 active cases, with Quebec and Ontario still the hottest zones.
There have been 9,015 deaths, again by far the greatest number in Quebec and Ontario.
The data shows "since early July, the highest incidence of COVID-19 has been reported among individuals aged
20 to 39 years."
20 to 39 years."
There are still outbreaks happening in high-risk settings, closed spaces, crowded places and situations of close contact.
It says with reopening of "social and economic spaces" we're seeing outbreaks in a "wider range of social settings."
It says with reopening of "social and economic spaces" we're seeing outbreaks in a "wider range of social settings."
The model uses data as of three days ago. Those spaces it talks about? Child care and schools, restaurants, bars and stores.
The model still projects an ongoing increase.
The slides say: "We are aiming for the ‘Slow Burn’ scenario
keeping case rates low and within the health and
public health system’s capacity to manage...."
The slides say: "We are aiming for the ‘Slow Burn’ scenario
keeping case rates low and within the health and
public health system’s capacity to manage...."
Tam's presentation goes on: "We are planning for a reasonable worst case scenario comprised of a large ‘Fall Peak’ followed
by ongoing ‘Peak & Valleys’ in which resource
demands intermittently exceed the health and/or
public health system’s capacity to manage..."
by ongoing ‘Peak & Valleys’ in which resource
demands intermittently exceed the health and/or
public health system’s capacity to manage..."
It also says that "Increases in infection rates are expected as we
continue to support economic and social activities, even with appropriate controls in place - our collective responsibility is to limit the size and impact of these surges in transmission."
continue to support economic and social activities, even with appropriate controls in place - our collective responsibility is to limit the size and impact of these surges in transmission."
