It seems like people are using the word herd immunity as a strategy without fully understanding the implications. Herd immunity is usually acquired through a vaccine because it takes usually 70-80% of people to have immunity to protect those who don’t from getting it.

1. Not controlling the virus will therefore require a large amount of illness and death and will be economically catastrophic.

2. The economic impact will be devastasting because ppl will only resume normal economic activity once ~EVERYONE has immunity. Without widespread, effective antibody testing how to know I’m immune? How would I know that the people I interact with are? It’s an information problem.

3. How would I credibly tell everyone who sees me in public—or hears that I’m traveling—know that I’m resuming normal activities because my risk is now zero? Social norms are real, people! Nobody wants to be judged, and (increasingly) harassed or ostracized.

4. Furthermore, people are still going to restrict their economic activity to prevent kids and loved ones. So, even if I am immune, I’m not going to take my kid to an activity for fear she would get it.

5. vIn sum, we need Congress to act until a vaccine is created OR until the BELIEVED risk of the virus is approximately zero. This is crucial. Policymakers are constantly tracking R and reporting cases but what really matters for economic outcomes is whether people FEEL safe.

Brought to you by hearing @jasonfurman speaking on NPR in a calm tone about how this is a national calamity on the scale of the Great Depression.