My latest piece for @WarOnTheRocks on the strategic choices facing #UK defence policy https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/strategic-suspense-british-foreign-and-defense-policy-at-a-crossroads/
2020 is a momentus year... 1/8

1) last stretch of #brexit nego, with a risk of no-deal by end of year that persists... and a UK government that’s refused to negotiate w EU @MichelBarnier on defence and foreign policy 2/8

2) and an ongoing "integrated review of security, defense, development, and foreign policy" that's advertised as the most ambitious since end of the Cold War @number10gov 3/8

The #Covid19 pandemic has magnified the strategic issues London is facing. Britain has the opportunity to seize the moment to draw early lessons and design policies and partnerships that are fit to address today’s strategic challenges. 4/8

Key strategic decisions that lie ahead: type of UK-EU “future relationship” agreement in trade, defense, internal security and foreign policy; risks & opportunities of continued dependency on the US in key strategic areas (intel, nuclear); UK strategy towards #China, #Russia. 5/8

(Note on Future Relationship: Common Sec and Def Policy #CSDP not necessarily most relevant policy vehicle for addressing key strategic challenges facing both London and the EU, consider investment screening @EU_Commission. Need to think outside of "third country" box.) 6/8

... how to articulate engagement with other partners #FiveEyes, “ #D10”, #E3, #LancasterHouse; what type of military capabilities for the future (large platforms versus #AI?); how much resources to commit to defence in economic downturn worst than 2008… 7/8

Brexit provides opportunity to those issues through at a critical moment. UK decisions will have implications for #EU and partners across the globe. #UK can act as first mover + bridge-builder between Europe and #US e.g. on #China. 8/8