Lebanon consists of four, practically antithetical sects. Unlike the US, they don't have a reserve-strength currency to hold it together. https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1294237331885445120

Most of the secular-minded, higher-g Lebanese have left. Brain drain is a knock-on effect of Western immigration nobody likes to talk about.

Eventually, QED, these countries become everyone else's problem as the failing states end up governed by the streets.

I expect eventually we'll come full-circle to solve these problems: the Great Powers will simply take these places over, and they'll be run by public-private, neo-imperial enterprises.

Another alternative is Taleb's Mediterranean League: the sea is a highway connecting a confederation of diverse city-states. This would be a pleasant outcome but it would take a fundamental shift in political values.