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When you see the outsize influence of the UAE upon regional affairs remember the following. The UAE is has a population of around 10 million out of whom 9 million are foreigners who have no chance of obtaining citizenship. UAE citizens are only about 1 million.
This "demographic imbalance" is permanent. The UAE& #39;s citizen population cannot catch up by natural birth because the birth rate has already dropped significantly (that comes with prosperity). They also can& #39;t catch up by naturalization coz that would break their political economy.
Now consider who the UAE, which has a population of 1 million, has chosen to pick epic, high-stakes fights with the last few years. Iran has a population of 81.8 million. Turkey has a population of 82 million. Yemen has a population of 28.5 million.
Now consider the countries whose ugly internal politics the UAE decided to get mired into, these are countries who have UAE-supported autocratic leaders whose hold is fierce but not resilient. Egypt has a population of 99 million. Saudi Arabia has a population of 33 million.
In a future where the US will no longer send half its navy to protect the UAE if it& #39;s threatened, and where under the surface, the MENA continues to bubble with possibility, the UAE could either scale back its interventions, or... build a strategic relationship with Israel.
Small countries have historically opted to build soft power, the power of persuasion, diplomacy, trade and culture, and that gave them a fighting chance against giants. Here we have a country (or two) choosing to play the game of hard power in a neighborhood of wounded giants.
For that to work the giants have to *always* be wounded. This can only happen through constant assault - economic warfare, diplomatic warfare, cyberwarfare, and actual war. It was already clear which paths the UAE has chosen, and by doing so they& #39;ve sealed their own future.
The UAE& #39;s MBZ set his country on this path in 2011/2012. Since then, he& #39;s had multiple chances for a course correction, but he continued to raise the stakes and double down on this path. With each move, the possibility of course corrections have diminished, and now they& #39;re gone.
The UAE& #39;s best allies in the region - as is Israel& #39;s - are its worst autocrats. The UAE regime& #39;s safety - as is Israel& #39;s - dependent on the much larger nations of the region being broken, in turmoil, or under the control of friendly autocrats. It& #39;s a match made in heaven.
My sisters and brothers across the MENA - ignore the noise, stay the course, and keep your eyes on the prize. We center our own communities and build power with them, towards a life of dignity and equality for all, with nobody standing on anybody& #39;s neck. We are the giant.
