1. If #Brewers don't turn the ship around this summer, it's important to recognize that it's not an organizational failure. At least, not in the sense that they got it "wrong." They did exactly what they set out to do, and got what they thought they were getting. Let me explain:

2. The #Brewers needed an absolute stud around which they could build the franchise. That's Christian Yelich. Previously, he was a cheap and predictable monster. Now, he's a predictable monster whose cost is locked in.

3. The #Brewers always have needed a young, cost-controlled core around which to build the rest of their roster. That hasn't changed. That's Hiura, Woodruff, Hader, Houser, Burnes, and Peralta. Maybe they thought Urías and Narváez would be part of that ... and maybe they will.

4. All of that is the competitive core. Around that, #Brewers wanted low-cost, high-variance veterans who have shown ability to be productive. They sought to combat the high-variance part w/ numbers. Throw a ton of one- or two-year (max) deals at a ton of one- or two-win players.

5. The key is that those low-cost, high-variance veterans (Gyorko, Smoak, Morrison, Anderson, Phelps, Holt, Sogard, etc.) are fungible—meaning, they can simply be discarded once the season is over without serious financial ramifications.

6. #Brewers have bet on the fact that *all* of those one-year contracts can't possibly be bad at the same time if you get enough of them. The group has shown enough big-league competence to bet that a few will hit. And, to be fair, that's largely proven true in recent years.

7. The problem, tho, is that depth-over-quality roster construction is meant to pay off over 162 games, not 60. Moreover, that depth-over-quality roster construction relies on the core being excellent, which hasn't really happened in 2020 ... which can happen in 20-game stints.

8. But this faceplant of a season, if it turns out to be that kind of season, was always possible. #Brewers just figured that the probability was low. Over 162 games, maybe they'd be right. The 60-game sprint is just hyperinflating the high-variance part of the equation.

9. #Brewers' org philosophy makes room for the occasional clunker, where a year's crop of low-cost, high-variance players just don't click for whatever reason. The point of the strategy is to keep one bad offseason from necessarily turning into several bad offseasons.

10. In other words, #Brewers figure that if they cook a pot of pasta, strain it, and throw all of it against a wall, enough pieces will stick to make it worthwhile. If it doesn't, tho, throw away that pasta and start cooking another pot for 2021. Chances are that pot will stick.