Is Lukashenko a selfish autocrat with both reactionary and neoliberal tendencies? Clearly. But is he absent of positive traits? Is he a fascist? Is the opposition inherently better? Is any change good change? Not necessarily. Thread:

Fascism has a specific definition, not "a leader I don't like". It's a merging of brownshirt paramilitaries with state power to crush the gains of a workers' movement in retreat during crisis. So where is the mass privatization? Where are the paramilitaries?

The fascist post-Maidan govt in Ukraine formally incorporated the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion into its military. Bolivia's fascist Defense Minister called on fascist group Union Juvenil Cruceñista to enforce brutality against indigenous activists. What's the equivalent in Belarus?

Like sure, Lukashenko is not socialist, and he has overseen attacks on unions, repression of opposition, etc. But that's par for the course for any bourgeois leader, not just fascists. There is no fascist White Terror in Belarus as far as I can see.

There are, of course, attacks on the working poor and the public good. For instance, the "Social Parasite" law which sought to tax people for being unemployed. Or the recent police violence. Or the fanfare around alleged privatizations around 2010.

The social parasite law was revoked in 2018, though it was replaced with alternative ways to punish the unemployed. Yes, it was detestable and reactionary, but that alone doesn't define fascism. Otherwise we'd have to call every neolib politician a fascist (don't tempt me lol).

And sure, in 2010 the Belarussian govt announced plans to privatize 90% of state-owned enterprises. But in reality they never approached individual investors, just listed some assets publicly which were almost all unprofitable enterprises with workforces of retirement age,

And they listed those with requirements on investors to retain the workforce, not restructure, etc, leading to very few assets actually being privatized, despite the show that was made of "privatization" for the press and the West. There's a lot of misdirection at play.

Despite those much-publicized privatization plans, Belarus still has free healthcare, reduced college, pensions, and other public institutions intact after all these years, while most of Eastern Europe was robbed blind by capitalists in the 90s and had their institutions smashed.

So, while Lukashenko's govt exhibits many of the evils of neoliberalism and reaction, it's idealist and not materialist to ground the conversation in that rather than the actual material possibilities which the opposition presents. Which are... suspect, to say the least.

Like, I'm certainly not dying on a hill to defend Lukashenko. But the fact remains that under his tenure, Belarus has retained many social provisions left over from the USSR which may not survive under a Christian nationalist opposition backed by Poland and funded by the NED.

Now, that last part may seem outlandish. After all, Tsikhanovskaya and her supporters just want free and fair elections, they don't even have a political outlook beyond that, right?

Just see how studiously she avoids taking positions in this interview. She claims to just want to create new elections so someone else can run, like a Lawrence Lessig "I'll do electoral reform and resign for REAL elections" sorta thing
https://meduza.io/amp/en/feature/2020/07/27/this-is-a-turning-point-in-belarusian-history?__twitter_impression=true

But as you may recall, the fascist coup in Bolivia, too, clothed itself in simply being a demand for "free and fair elections." These are all the same things that were being said then. We have to pay attention to who they actually are, not just what they SAY they're fighting for.

Who is funding them? Well: https://www.ned.org/region/central-and-eastern-europe/belarus-2019/

Who is signal boosting them? Two of the biggest channels pushing the protest footage and their narrative are Nexta, a Polish-based Telegram channel, and Belsat TV, which is owned by the Polish government.

Poland, as a reminder, now has a completely far-right govt which holds massive annual fascist rallies in the capital. There's also the history of Poland claiming western Belarus several times, during the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and in their post-WWI landgrab.

Like, the govt that you were just horrified at a few weeks ago for their cruelty towards LGBT+ people isn't now just altruistically supporting an opposition that simply wants feel-good civil liberties for LGBT+ and other oppressed Belarusians.

Many in Belarus now wave a white-red-white flag. It was originally designed to evoke the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and later used by the Nazi-collaborationist Central Rada during WWII. It's a symbol of reactionary nationalism, like Ukraine's trident https://twitter.com/kaylapop_/status/1293736153015824385?s=19

To reiterate, I'm certainly not caping for Lukashenko. I sympathize with the frustration of Belarusian workers with his shoddy, overextended, crude rule. But we need to remain critical and examine what alternatives we can realistically expect the current opposition to produce.

Otherwise, we may soon see Belarus descend into yet another Ukraine, yet another Bolivia, yet another Hong Kong -- another place wrecked by reactionary mob violence, birthing a fascist wave as liberals cheer on its anti-authoritarian protest aesthetics.