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"We can't turn our schools into yet another political football in this game. It is not fair on our children" - Mike Ryan, WHO, July 13th, 2020.
The discussion around schools is toxic and misinformed.
Some people should consider listening to his expert advice.
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The discussion around schools is toxic and misinformed.
Some people should consider listening to his expert advice.
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"It's almost inevitable that if schools open that there will be clusters in some schools." - Varadkar
That statement is 100% factual.
It is the view of WHO and ECDC's Technical Lead report.
It does not equal "sure who cares if people die".
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-schools-transmission-August%202020.pdf
That statement is 100% factual.
It is the view of WHO and ECDC's Technical Lead report.
It does not equal "sure who cares if people die".
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-schools-transmission-August%202020.pdf
A cluster by definition is 2 cases.
A 7-year-old boy and his 6-year-old sister may go into school with zero symptoms, no temperature, and feel great.
If they are Covid19 positive, it will count as a "school cluster" - even when it had nothing to do with transmission at school.
A 7-year-old boy and his 6-year-old sister may go into school with zero symptoms, no temperature, and feel great.
If they are Covid19 positive, it will count as a "school cluster" - even when it had nothing to do with transmission at school.
That is inevitable - and the consensus view of ECDC's and WHO's technical reports.
What is not inevitable - and is VERY preventable - are "significant school outbreaks", whereby onward transmission occurs throughout school.
We have plenty of experience of school outbreaks.
What is not inevitable - and is VERY preventable - are "significant school outbreaks", whereby onward transmission occurs throughout school.
We have plenty of experience of school outbreaks.
The last pandemic to strike Ireland was 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic.
If I was to tell you dozens of schools had massive outbreaks and were forced to close, it might come as news.
11 years ago is a long time but that's precisely what happened.
It should not happen in 2020.
If I was to tell you dozens of schools had massive outbreaks and were forced to close, it might come as news.
11 years ago is a long time but that's precisely what happened.
It should not happen in 2020.
The worst of those 2009 H1N1 outbreaks were in the Donegal Gaeltacht but they affected schools all over Ireland.
Coláiste Bhríde in Co. Donegal and Coláiste Mhuire Loch an Iuir were the most high profile closures, with hundreds of children affected.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0812/120617-swineflu/#:~:text=Col%C3%A1iste%20Bhr%C3%ADde%20in%20Ranafast%2C%20Co,influenza%20A(H1N1)%20symptoms.
Coláiste Bhríde in Co. Donegal and Coláiste Mhuire Loch an Iuir were the most high profile closures, with hundreds of children affected.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0812/120617-swineflu/#:~:text=Col%C3%A1iste%20Bhr%C3%ADde%20in%20Ranafast%2C%20Co,influenza%20A(H1N1)%20symptoms.
Statistically, Colaiste Ide in Dingle, Co. Kerry was the worst-affected school in the country, with over 40% of the school coming down with symptoms.
I found news reports for 54 schools forced to close in 2009 due to Swine Flu outbreaks.
https://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/health/single-biggest-outbreak-of-swine-flu-forces-school-closure-26571651.html#:~:text=THE%20single%20biggest%20incidence%20of,was%20hit%20by%20the%20virus.
I found news reports for 54 schools forced to close in 2009 due to Swine Flu outbreaks.
https://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/health/single-biggest-outbreak-of-swine-flu-forces-school-closure-26571651.html#:~:text=THE%20single%20biggest%20incidence%20of,was%20hit%20by%20the%20virus.
The H1N1 pandemic killed 27 people in Ireland, with 1,000 hospitalisations, but those numbers reflected confirmed cases only, and testing was not widespread (anywhere on Earth).
The ILI (Influenza-Like Illness) death toll for that year was around 600.
Flu kills.
The ILI (Influenza-Like Illness) death toll for that year was around 600.
Flu kills.
No child has died from Covid19 in Ireland.
The same cannot be said for H1N1, which has killed some previously-healthy Irish children in the past 11 years.
Schools in 2009 did their best to keep H1N1 out, but with far fewer measures than we see today. https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/child-dies-from-swine-flu-in-dublin-hospital-34425127.html
The same cannot be said for H1N1, which has killed some previously-healthy Irish children in the past 11 years.
Schools in 2009 did their best to keep H1N1 out, but with far fewer measures than we see today. https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/child-dies-from-swine-flu-in-dublin-hospital-34425127.html
The societal measures deployed in 2020 - masks, hand washing, 2 meters - mean the 14-day level of infection in Ireland is currently 18.3 per 100,000.
The peak incidence of H1N1 in 2009 was 201.3 per 100,000.
There was far more Swine Flu in the community, than Covid19.
The peak incidence of H1N1 in 2009 was 201.3 per 100,000.
There was far more Swine Flu in the community, than Covid19.
Our baseline levels of infection in the community are 10 times lower than 2009 - due to your efforts.
Statistically, schools are safer as a result of this, with less infection to introduce.
If we drive down community transmission back to 6.0 per 100,000, they'll be even safer.
Statistically, schools are safer as a result of this, with less infection to introduce.
If we drive down community transmission back to 6.0 per 100,000, they'll be even safer.
In 2009, nobody blamed teachers, politicians, parents for Swine Flu outbreaks that led to all those school closures.
In 2020, parts of society have developed a God-complex and believe measures exist to guarantee prevention of transmission in any setting.
They don't exist.
In 2020, parts of society have developed a God-complex and believe measures exist to guarantee prevention of transmission in any setting.
They don't exist.
Infections (single cases) of Covid19 in schools are inevitable.
We know this from South Korea, with the strictest criteria for schools in the world.
Masks, thermal scanning, plexi-glass between children, one way hallways, staggered play time, on top of online self-reporting.
We know this from South Korea, with the strictest criteria for schools in the world.
Masks, thermal scanning, plexi-glass between children, one way hallways, staggered play time, on top of online self-reporting.
As an aside, their self-reporting system (similar but separate to app) is a great idea, I'd like Ireland to embrace.
It's a simple online form parents fill out every evening:
Temperature of child: [insert]
Symptoms: Yes/No
Contact with anyone who has been abroad lately: Yes/No
It's a simple online form parents fill out every evening:
Temperature of child: [insert]
Symptoms: Yes/No
Contact with anyone who has been abroad lately: Yes/No
It helps S. Korea to spot patterns before they become issues.
If a number of children are reporting a cough and temperature, South Korea mass-tests the school.
It allows them to cut off clusters before they become large outbreaks.
It's a basic, free, simple, effective idea.
If a number of children are reporting a cough and temperature, South Korea mass-tests the school.
It allows them to cut off clusters before they become large outbreaks.
It's a basic, free, simple, effective idea.
Despite all of that effort, there've been 61 school closures in S. Korea, due to teachers or children testing positive.
Keeping asymptomatic Covid19+ children out of schools is not possible - in the absence of psychic powers.
But preventing a large outbreak in those schools is.
Keeping asymptomatic Covid19+ children out of schools is not possible - in the absence of psychic powers.
But preventing a large outbreak in those schools is.
The most instructive case I came across was the primary school in Busan.
6-year-old girl wore a mask, had no temperature and no symptoms.
Ended up testing positive, was infected in a supermarket (they traced it), and upon mass-testing the school, a total of 5 cases were found.
6-year-old girl wore a mask, had no temperature and no symptoms.
Ended up testing positive, was infected in a supermarket (they traced it), and upon mass-testing the school, a total of 5 cases were found.
People are confused between 2 issues.
-Asymptomatic child, infected at home, who feels just wonderful and goes into school is one issue.
This will categorically happen.
-Transmission throughout the school, leading to dozens infected, should not - and will not - happen.
-Asymptomatic child, infected at home, who feels just wonderful and goes into school is one issue.
This will categorically happen.
-Transmission throughout the school, leading to dozens infected, should not - and will not - happen.
It has not happened in S. Korea, with a strict approach, who despite 61 school closures have not a single 10+ case outbreak.
It has not happened in Norway, either, with a lax no-mask approach.
Both countries rely on a) handwashing and b) pods of children for play time.
It has not happened in Norway, either, with a lax no-mask approach.
Both countries rely on a) handwashing and b) pods of children for play time.
I personally lean towards the S. Korean mask model but from reading their translated epidemiological reports, children under 10 fidget with their masks non-stop, often subconsciously.
Handwashing therefore is vital and underpins either successful school strategy.
Handwashing therefore is vital and underpins either successful school strategy.
Outbreak Control Teams in Ireland are excellent and I've no doubt they'll respond to any positive cases and contain small clusters.
Teachers and parents are excellent, I've no doubt they'll nail the vital handwashing and playtime pod routines.
Teachers and parents are excellent, I've no doubt they'll nail the vital handwashing and playtime pod routines.
Schools on this island face outbreaks all the time and often close as a result of them.
Whether it's viruses (Measles, H1N1, Norovirus) or bacteria (Legionella pneumophila, Shigella).
Covid19 might be a novel virus but this is nothing new.
Whether it's viruses (Measles, H1N1, Norovirus) or bacteria (Legionella pneumophila, Shigella).
Covid19 might be a novel virus but this is nothing new.
What is new is we're now blaming people for it all.
We're blaming politicians for asymptomatic children going into school feeling wonderful, not a care in the world.
We're blaming parents for them getting it to begin with, by assuming masks are magic shields (they're not).
We're blaming politicians for asymptomatic children going into school feeling wonderful, not a care in the world.
We're blaming parents for them getting it to begin with, by assuming masks are magic shields (they're not).
It is nobodies fault when a sick child doesn't know they have a virus and goes to school.
It is the pinnacle of human conceit to believe we can stop this from ever happening - and that someone must be to blame if it does.
There should never be blame attached to getting sick.
It is the pinnacle of human conceit to believe we can stop this from ever happening - and that someone must be to blame if it does.
There should never be blame attached to getting sick.
