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I've been too low on Chris Herndon all offseason.
I've been fading him entirely too much, and I didn't even include him in my initial top-15 TE rankings.
Here's why I'm changing my tune and why I believe he is shaping up to be one of the very best values in fantasy this season
I've been fading him entirely too much, and I didn't even include him in my initial top-15 TE rankings.
Here's why I'm changing my tune and why I believe he is shaping up to be one of the very best values in fantasy this season
At first, I was scared off by the presence of Ryan Griffin.
Griffin was not on the team during Herndon's rookie season in 2018, but he was called upon to play a key role as the TE in the offense last year during Herndon's absence (see thread below): https://twitter.com/FantasyMikeBBF/status/1278719889331695632?s=20
Griffin was not on the team during Herndon's rookie season in 2018, but he was called upon to play a key role as the TE in the offense last year during Herndon's absence (see thread below): https://twitter.com/FantasyMikeBBF/status/1278719889331695632?s=20
I do feel that some of the points in that thread still ring true.
But from Weeks 9-17 as a rookie in 2018, Herndon was the TE12 in PPR. This was also while playing with a rookie QB, who will now be heading into his third season and should be even better.
But from Weeks 9-17 as a rookie in 2018, Herndon was the TE12 in PPR. This was also while playing with a rookie QB, who will now be heading into his third season and should be even better.
In addition, Herndon put forth some very impressive advanced metrics as a rookie, including:
- 12.9 YPC
- 9.0 yards per target
- 2.02 fantasy points per target
- 92.9 true catch percentage
- 12.9 YPC
- 9.0 yards per target
- 2.02 fantasy points per target
- 92.9 true catch percentage
His 11.1% hog rate was also good for 17th in the league, and he saw 17% of the team's red-zone targets.
Basically, when he was on the field, Darnold loved to throw him the ball. And with a weak/inexperienced WR group in 2020, Herndon should again be one of Darnold's top targets
Basically, when he was on the field, Darnold loved to throw him the ball. And with a weak/inexperienced WR group in 2020, Herndon should again be one of Darnold's top targets
Yet many others are STILL continuing to fade Herndon like I was; right now, he is being both ranked AND drafted outside of the top 20 at the TE position (per @FantasyPros).
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/ppr-te-cheatsheets.php
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/ppr-te.php
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/ppr-te-cheatsheets.php
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/ppr-te.php
Though I am not saying he's a surefire TE1, I will say that there is perhaps nobody going as late as he is who has a better shot at finishing within the top tier at his position.
Don't sleep on Chris Herndon
Don't sleep on Chris Herndon
