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NOW: @StevenStackMD, State Epidemiologist Dr. Doug Thoroughman meeting with Program Review and Investigation Committee in Frankfort.
Lawmakers and state health officials discussing COVID-19 testing and reporting process.
Lawmakers and state health officials discussing COVID-19 testing and reporting process.
Dr. Thoroughman presenting a slide to lawmakers that show where Kentucky stands compared to U.S. and World statistics.
*numbers are as of Saturday
*numbers are as of Saturday
Dr. Thoroughman is breaking down what the law requires for testing and reporting.
It’s required by law for labs to report positive results, but not negative results.
Complicates the positivity rate when labs don’t report negative results.
It’s required by law for labs to report positive results, but not negative results.
Complicates the positivity rate when labs don’t report negative results.
Total number of positivity rate divided by total number of tests administered is how the state calculates positivity rate.
But, that could include multiple negative tests from the same person over a period of time.
Inflates positivity rate.
But, that could include multiple negative tests from the same person over a period of time.
Inflates positivity rate.
Sen. Carroll questions why the state is making decisions and mandates based on what might be inaccurate numbers.
@StevenStackMD says he assures that there’s far more that goes into those decisions.
@StevenStackMD says he assures that there’s far more that goes into those decisions.
There is still quite a bit of confusion in test results, Dr. Thoroughman says.
For example, there are a lot of people who test negative for the virus, but positive for antibodies - which indicates they were infected at some point. This also complicates data, Thoroughman says.
For example, there are a lot of people who test negative for the virus, but positive for antibodies - which indicates they were infected at some point. This also complicates data, Thoroughman says.
Here are the statistics that are reported to @GovAndyBeshear each day - which he then relays to the public in his daily briefings.
This is interesting.
What’s reportered each day in Kentucky is the daily incidence of disease. Could be the reason for spikes if facilities report numerous days of testing at once.
What’s reportered each day in Kentucky is the daily incidence of disease. Could be the reason for spikes if facilities report numerous days of testing at once.
“The day-to-day information may be an artifact and not representative of what’s happening,” @StevenStackMD says.
A lot of these spikes, including yesterday’s record breaking numbers, could be a result of a ‘dump’ of days of positive cases being reported from a lab.
A lot of these spikes, including yesterday’s record breaking numbers, could be a result of a ‘dump’ of days of positive cases being reported from a lab.
Interesting statistic here: there are already more COVID-19 related deaths in Kentucky than flu related deaths in the last four years combined.
Final word from Dr. Thoroughman’s presentation:
“Testing and reporting are complex and difficult processes”
“Testing and reporting are complex and difficult processes”
Sen. Carroll asking health officials if influenza is more deadly than COVID-19 in kids. Health officials say data shows that is the case.
Sen. Carroll: “So, we close our schools for COVID, but not influenza?”
Sen. Carroll: “So, we close our schools for COVID, but not influenza?”
“None of us (heath professionals) would say the mortality rate of this disease is higher than 2%,” @StevenStackMD says.
Keep in mind, that is 2% of people who actually get COVID-19, not 2% of the population.
Keep in mind, that is 2% of people who actually get COVID-19, not 2% of the population.
In reality, 99% of people in the world won’t die from COVID-19.
However, @StevenStackMD says 1% is still a massive number of deaths when you think about the millions of people that small percentage encompasses.
Not something to be taken lightly, he urges.
However, @StevenStackMD says 1% is still a massive number of deaths when you think about the millions of people that small percentage encompasses.
Not something to be taken lightly, he urges.
Just because you’re old doesn’t mean you’re necessarily more likely to die from COVID-19 than the next person, Dr. Thoroughman mentions.
The majority of elderly people who have died from the disease have several other health conditions that contribute to death.
The majority of elderly people who have died from the disease have several other health conditions that contribute to death.
There have been lots of questions about herd immunity.
@StevenStackMD says it would take more than 60-70% infectivity rate to even get to that point. Thoroughman says it’s even higher.
Tens of thousands of Kentuckians would have to die for “herd immunity” to be achieved.
@StevenStackMD says it would take more than 60-70% infectivity rate to even get to that point. Thoroughman says it’s even higher.
Tens of thousands of Kentuckians would have to die for “herd immunity” to be achieved.
“The data is, has been and continues to be imperfect... but it is useful,” @StevenStackMD says of daily reporting of statistics.
Talking about schools now...
Sen. Carroll asking @StevenStackMD if he supports the recommendation to KY superintendents to delay in-person learning until late September.
Stack says yes. Adds that we’re at an all time high in cases and that kids can transmit disease.
Sen. Carroll asking @StevenStackMD if he supports the recommendation to KY superintendents to delay in-person learning until late September.
Stack says yes. Adds that we’re at an all time high in cases and that kids can transmit disease.
