Absolutely. I study moments of mass mobilization. previous protests in Belarus were very different. This is indeed a critical juncture for protest mobilization in the country. 1) the protests are physicallly bigger (hard to see because they r dispersed geographically) but bigger https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/status/1293884413370040320

2) yes the state has acted far more quickly and violently ... but this actually mobilizing ... that’s the thing with repression it doesn’t allways work the way you want it to #dictators ... mothers, elderly, friends, crying outside of prisons is heart rentching and mobilizing!

3) we see the element I allways look for in large protests - to see if they will go from large protests to mass mobilization- what I call a “cross cleavage coalition” aka awakening of a larger “protestorate”. (See my book on ukraine and argentina and my article in @JoDemocracy)

#crosscleavagecoalition is forming at a very rapid pace.

#crosscleavagecoalition across sectors and classes

4) we also very quick learning on side of protesters and corresponding shifts in tactics. Be it from marches to human chains to intersection blockades...

5) we see self organization and decentralization of action (allways happens in large moments of mass mobilization) this is key and actually makes it more difficult to repress.

6) people who are “non protesters” or at least see (for now not a year from now) themselves as such are volunteering to help protesters (giving flowers, bringing food and water, driving released prisoners home). This engaged “non protester” is key in moments of mass mobilization

these #peaceful “no direct action” #repertoires provide #support, invigorate and strengthen protester resolve. “They might not be standing here with us but they ARE with us... and we are many” actual quote from Ukraine 2004.

7) And you have defections!!! First small level ... then higher up... (they are coming I can feel it)

These initial Defections might be symbolic but they inspire and give strength. Key sign just how widespread support for protest is.

With all this happening - Ppl who normally would stay home have a harder staying disengaged - they c just how brave others are & want 2 be like the: father destroying his police uniform as his children watchon, soldier handing out roses, or woman with her baby handing out water.

8) next we will hopefully start to see (or hear rumors of) a split among the ruling elite (this might come from business which is under pressure from lost revenue due 2 strikes & internet lockdown and covid!) these will first be invisible to us. By the time we see them ...

The regime will be 2 weak 2 survive in same shape ... may turn 2 more extreme violence ... but as my research shows - as in argentina, Egypt, or Ukriane it won’t be able 2 hold on or as in Syria or even Venezuela it will hold on 2 something different 2 what they had #notavictory

9) in this case flight is a better option - but of course the final nail in the confin or element that will change the direction of the country will be the international response. That is why we @pawelkowalpl @cafreeland @radeksikorski @RebHarms @DmytroKuleba need to act !

I didn’t mean 2 show off my publications but some folks have asked if I can post some. My book is here https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9781137409768 JoD article is here https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-maidan-and-beyond-who-were-the-protesters/ & the @EurAsiaStudies paper is here https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09668136.2016.1159665?cookieSet=1 ungated versions here https://www.academia.edu/9730946/Mapping_Mass_Mobilization_Understanding_Revolutionary_Moments_in_Argentina_and_Ukraine