Since 1920, only 4 QB& #39;s have ever had in one season;
Completion % > 70
Passer rating > 100
Attempts > 300
Drew Brees
Steve Young
Joe Montana
Derek Carr
A thread on Derek Carr and why he is a value at his current ADP
So lets look at some passing metrics. For this sample size I will be looking at QB& #39;s since 2014 with a minimum attempts of >300.
69 QB& #39;s meet this minimum.
I& #39;ll include some interesting names on each list for reference as well as Mariota.
69 QB& #39;s meet this minimum.
I& #39;ll include some interesting names on each list for reference as well as Mariota.
Y/A
#18 - 7.48 Mariota
#41 - 6.88 Carr
#42 - 6.87 K Murray
#45 - 6.86 Kaepernick
#56 - 6.61 J Allen
#58 - 6.59 D Jones
#59 - 6.55 J Flacco
#60 - 6.55 N Foles
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This is the one area that Mariota has the clear advantage over Carr.
#18 - 7.48 Mariota
#41 - 6.88 Carr
#42 - 6.87 K Murray
#45 - 6.86 Kaepernick
#56 - 6.61 J Allen
#58 - 6.59 D Jones
#59 - 6.55 J Flacco
#60 - 6.55 N Foles
This is the one area that Mariota has the clear advantage over Carr.
Int %
#16 - 1.87 D Carr
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#18 - 1.91 Stafford
#19 - 1.98 Ryan
#34 - 2.41 D Watson
#36 - 2.49 Mariota
#42 - 2.68 A Luck
#44 - 2.70 Rivers
#61 - 3.43 Mayfield
#62 - 3.45 P Manning
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#16 - 1.87 D Carr
#18 - 1.91 Stafford
#19 - 1.98 Ryan
#34 - 2.41 D Watson
#36 - 2.49 Mariota
#42 - 2.68 A Luck
#44 - 2.70 Rivers
#61 - 3.43 Mayfield
#62 - 3.45 P Manning
Sack %
#1 - 3.4% P Manning
#11 - 4.9% D Carr
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#23 - 5.9% Wentz
#29 - 6.2% Dak
#33 - 6.5% Rodgers
#53 - 8.1% Mariota
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#1 - 3.4% P Manning
#11 - 4.9% D Carr
#23 - 5.9% Wentz
#29 - 6.2% Dak
#33 - 6.5% Rodgers
#53 - 8.1% Mariota
Passer rating
#26 - 90.7 Carr
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#27 - 89.6 Mariota
#28 - 89.5 P Manning
#29 - 88.7 E Manning
#31 - 88.3 Bridgewater
#41 - 85.9 Newton
#42 - 85.9 Mayfield
#46 - 84.6 Flacco
#26 - 90.7 Carr
#27 - 89.6 Mariota
#28 - 89.5 P Manning
#29 - 88.7 E Manning
#31 - 88.3 Bridgewater
#41 - 85.9 Newton
#42 - 85.9 Mayfield
#46 - 84.6 Flacco
Passing Y/G
#22 - 246.5 Dak
#23 - 242.5 D Carr
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#24 - 242.3 R Wilson
#32 - 230.9 T Romo
#33 - 230.4 C Newton
#40 - 209.6 Mariota
#62 - 139.6 L Jackson
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#22 - 246.5 Dak
#23 - 242.5 D Carr
#24 - 242.3 R Wilson
#32 - 230.9 T Romo
#33 - 230.4 C Newton
#40 - 209.6 Mariota
#62 - 139.6 L Jackson
Total TD& #39;s
Carr actually sits #10 overall since 2014 but the numbers are a little unfair in his favor as some QB& #39;s have retired while others didn& #39;t begin their career until after 2014.
So let& #39;s look at TD% in the next tweet
Carr actually sits #10 overall since 2014 but the numbers are a little unfair in his favor as some QB& #39;s have retired while others didn& #39;t begin their career until after 2014.
So let& #39;s look at TD% in the next tweet
TD % = % of TD throws when attempting a pass
I used this metric instead of total TD& #39;s to get a true value. And this is where Carr has struggled.
#33 4.30 Carr
#34 4.30 Mariota
#35 4.20 Darnold
#45 3.70 K Murray
I used this metric instead of total TD& #39;s to get a true value. And this is where Carr has struggled.
#33 4.30 Carr
#34 4.30 Mariota
#35 4.20 Darnold
#45 3.70 K Murray
If we look at the offensive playmakers that Carr has played with since 2014, it& #39;s a somewhat uninspiring group to be honest.
2014
Andre Holmes, James Jones, Mychal Rivera, McFadden
2015
Cooper, Crabtree, Seth Robert& #39;s, L Murray
2014
Andre Holmes, James Jones, Mychal Rivera, McFadden
2015
Cooper, Crabtree, Seth Robert& #39;s, L Murray
2016
Cooper, Crabtree, Seth Robert& #39;s, L Murray
2017
Jared Cook, Cooper, Crabtree, Lynch
2018
Jared Cook, Jordy Nelson, Seth Robert& #39;s, D Martin,
2019
D Waller, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, Jacobs
Cooper, Crabtree, Seth Robert& #39;s, L Murray
2017
Jared Cook, Cooper, Crabtree, Lynch
2018
Jared Cook, Jordy Nelson, Seth Robert& #39;s, D Martin,
2019
D Waller, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, Jacobs
So how about Carr& #39;s fantasy finishes since 2014? Inside the top 20 each year along with one top 10 finish.
Fantasy finishes
2014 20th
2015 14th
2016 10th
2017 19th
2018 18th
2019 15th
His avg fantasy finish is QB16
Reminder. QB ADP of #30
Fantasy finishes
2014 20th
2015 14th
2016 10th
2017 19th
2018 18th
2019 15th
His avg fantasy finish is QB16
Reminder. QB ADP of #30
The Raiders offense has had an infusion of both talent and speed with the addition of Ruggs and Edwards from this years draft. Both Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller could take another step as well.
Conclusion
Carr isn& #39;t a "sexy" fantasy QB to own, but he gets the job done. I& #39;d be comfortable with him as my QB2 and thrilled to have him as my QB3.
If Carr can improve his TD #& #39;s even slightly in 2020 he& #39;s going to return even more value on his dynasty ADP of QB30.
Carr isn& #39;t a "sexy" fantasy QB to own, but he gets the job done. I& #39;d be comfortable with him as my QB2 and thrilled to have him as my QB3.
If Carr can improve his TD #& #39;s even slightly in 2020 he& #39;s going to return even more value on his dynasty ADP of QB30.
Thanks and I hope you enjoyed this look at Derek Carr!
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