@DavQuinn Elimination (if possible) presents number of challenges (imo) 1. Timeframe: SARS CoV2 transmits with stochastic patterns and confidence levels of predicting elimination over course of weeks would be v low. Nature of transmission makes precise prediction v difficult. https://twitter.com/DavQuinn/status/1293626331956117504

Even when you think you have eliminated you probably haven’t. Elimination to zero would mostly likely take many months (without guarantee of being achieved) 2. Maintenance: If we achieved elimination (with the aim of returning to normal living and lifting all restrictions

inside our borders) the level of travel into the country would have to be severely limited to maintain the eliminated state. Normal intake of 60,000 per day would flood present testing capacity (we should be looking at more rapid technology) or any quarantine facilities.

3. Risk: If the objective of elimination is to lift all restrictions within our borders this presents risk if border barrier is compromised (likely) or more worryingly if there was some invisible residual infection when elimination was apparently achieved and restrictions lifted.

This would allow the virus to transmit in the community without any resistance. The recent new cases in NZ may be such an example but hopefully they can be traced to travel. Otherwise, community transmission could have been taking place for many weeks

and returned the effective R value back close to its original R0 value (with some pre-existing immunity being the only defence for resistance). There are no easy solutions.