FWIW, I think the likeliest scenario will be the House of Representatives deciding the next POTUS. And even with a D majority, it will be which party controls more state delegations that proves decisive. Trump has an advantage on that front. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1293767109701521412">https://twitter.com/Redistric...

Also, POTUS is starting his culture wars (e.g. suburban housewives, housing prices) relatively early compared to 2017 and 2018. I have always been of the opinion that he knows exactly what he& #39;s doing.

Finally, Biden has a similar national vote lead compared to Dukakis in 1988. And the DNC comes before the RNC. After Bush& #39; strong RNC performance, Dukakis never recovered. In fact Bush& #39; lead continued to grow.

Bush painted Dukakis as & #39;weak on crime& #39;, something Dukakis struggled to rebut. And as @RachelBitecofer and @jerry_jtaylor suggest, Ds such at creating meta-narratives: https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1292892097415204867?s=20">https://twitter.com/RachelBit... .

The point of this thread: POTUS has room for upsides given structural D weaknesses, POTUS& #39; campaign strategies, historical similarities of Biden with Dukakis, etc.