FWIW, I think the likeliest scenario will be the House of Representatives deciding the next POTUS. And even with a D majority, it will be which party controls more state delegations that proves decisive. Trump has an advantage on that front. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1293767109701521412

Also, POTUS is starting his culture wars (e.g. suburban housewives, housing prices) relatively early compared to 2017 and 2018. I have always been of the opinion that he knows exactly what he's doing.

Finally, Biden has a similar national vote lead compared to Dukakis in 1988. And the DNC comes before the RNC. After Bush' strong RNC performance, Dukakis never recovered. In fact Bush' lead continued to grow.

Bush painted Dukakis as 'weak on crime', something Dukakis struggled to rebut. And as @RachelBitecofer and @jerry_jtaylor suggest, Ds such at creating meta-narratives: https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1292892097415204867?s=20 .

The point of this thread: POTUS has room for upsides given structural D weaknesses, POTUS' campaign strategies, historical similarities of Biden with Dukakis, etc.