Memphis/Shelby County
Mid-Wk Covid Report, Aug12

tl;dr
- daily cases are +3% over 6wks, since July 1
- meanwhile, tests are -15%
- up to 28 daily cases per 100k
- at least 3x more testing needed
- we're getting a master class on how to lie with statistics (don't fall for it)

1/

First, the data...

As you can see, both cases and testing have slowed down. We'll talk about this more, but I think it's pretty clear that the drop in testing is directly responsible for the drop in case growth.

2/

Here are daily cases and daily tests reported.

I got some feedback about my trendlines, rec'ing that I change them from linear to polynomial bc it better shows the trends happening.

I think this is helpful.

(Feedback is a gift!)

3/

I want to highlight the 7-day trends since July 1, which is 6wks ago to the day.

Cases: 259 --> 266 (+3%)
Tests: 2222 --> 1890 (-15%)

Cases rose then dropped, but are essentially flat.

Tests are down substantially.

Remember this, bc we'll come back to it in a minute.

4/

Here are the 14-day growth rates.

As you can see, cases are still growing faster than tests, but the two lines are getting closer together. That's a good thing. This impacts the positivity rate.

But cases are still growing 49% faster. (That's down from 76% just 11days ago.)

5/

I'm cautiously optimistic abt the 7-day positivity rate going down to 14.1%. The past six Weds have been 16.2%, 15.3%, 15.2%, 13.9% 13.4%, 11.7%.

But the 7-day is a little noisy.

The 14-day rate is 15.2%. Here are the past six wks: 15.7%, 15.2%, 14.6%,13.7%,12.6%, 10.9%.

6/

The Harvard metrics set the goal at 3% positive. The WHO sets their bar at 5%. The Shelby Co Health Dept says 10%.

We're avg'ing 1890 tests/day.
To get under 10%, we'd need 2700/day.
Under 5%, we'd need 5400/day. (2.9x more!)
Under 3%, we'd need 9100/day. (4.8x more!)

7/

The other metric from Harvard is case rates.

Green <1 daily case per 100k (safe)
Yellow 1<10 (caution)
Orange 11<25 (danger)
Red 25+ (stay-at-home orders necessary)

8/

We've been in the RED since June 30! That's 44 days! Over 6wks!

Imagine if we had shut down when Harvard said we should. We'd be safely reopening schools in 2wks.

We need to act now if we want to reopen schools after Fall Break.

Oh, and notice the uptick since Saturday?

9/

Meanwhile, our mayor is actively feeding us misinformation.

From Monday's update: "The number of tests given daily has also gone down slightly."

Nice try. How about, Our 7-day avg of tests reported reached its lowest level since June 24.

https://covid19.memphistn.gov/covid-19-update-from-mayor-strickland-8-10/  

10/

Also from Mon: "Our  positivity rate has been dropping each of the last two weeks."

Again, nice try. Our pos rate was 15.5%, the same as it was 7days prior...and higher than it was 14days (15.1%) or 21days (15.3%) before.

In fact, on no other Mon had it ever been higher.

11/

What about Tuesday?

"We've hit a significant milestone," he said," we have extended our rate at which infections double to 35 days. This is the longest timespan we've had...and is hard proof that what we're doing is working."

Well, we cut testing by 15% over 6wks!

12/

This is straight out of the Trump playbook: "If we stop testing we'd have fewer cases."

I call bullshit.

When we test less, we have fewer *identified* cases. But that's not the same as *actual* cases.

(Oh, & did I mention we have slightly *more* id'd cases vs 6wks ago?)

13/

The truth is, when we test less, we miss cases. And then we can't trace and isolate known exposures.

And that means covid is spreading undetected through our city.

This is just a fact. But our leaders refuse to acknowledge this or warn the public.

It's a big problem.

14/

Okay, remember this from above?

In the past 6wks, since July 1, daily cases are up 3%, but daily tests are down 15%.

Let me say that again: TESTING IS DOWN 15%!

15/

Oh, hey, by the way...the doubling time for cases is now at 38 days.

Sounds great, right? WRONG.

Because guess what? THE DOUBLING TIME FOR TESTS IS NOW UP TO 50 DAYS!

Context matters.

It's like we're getting a class in how to lie with statistics.

16/

Switching gears to...trip wires.

First, if you haven't, read what I had to say about this on Sat, after the Health Dept quietly dropped the new health directive...at 10:22pm Fri night via social media!

No briefing, no press release, nothing.

https://twitter.com/firstresponses/status/1292173788638056449

17/

It sure seemed shady that they drag their feet for 5wks...and then quietly drop it late on a Fri night.

They could have announced it in Th's briefing. NOPE.

But surely they would announce it in Tues's briefing, right? WRONG.

18/

And to make matters worse, not a single reporter even asked about the doc!

So here we are, 5days after they released a new health directive, with long-awaited trip wires, and we've had ZERO public discussion.

There are no words for how angry I am about this.

19/

The gap between our Health Dept & the experts at Harvard is...well, gigantic.

Harvard says you have to shut down at 25 daily cases per 100k, or 234 cases locally.

Our Health Dept says 750 cases, or 80 per 100k. 3x higher!

Who do you trust? Harvard, or the Health Dept?

20/

Why is this not the lede in every single article about the local covid response?

Why is this not the leading question after every single covid task force briefing?

Why is there no accountability from the city council or the county commission?

21/

And what about this?

Why has no reporter and no political leader said a word about the fact that the Back to Business website, with the dashboard of the reopening indicators, was taken down...as soon as every indicator turned RED?

22/

I also want to know why all the good liberals are yelling at Mayor Strickland, but giving Mayor Harris a pass?

Don't get me wrong: Strickland deserves it all - and then some.

But the Health Dept answers to Harris. I've actively supported him for 10yrs, but he gets no pass.

23/

I should mention that, w/case data inaccurate bc of testing, hospitalization becomes more important.

And over the past wk, we'vd moved from yellow to red. There are 52 fewer acute care beds & 6 fewer ICU beds available. And there are 14 more confirmed covid cases in ICU.

24/

I'm going to end there. But if you want to know who I am and why you should care about my analysis, read here.
http://firstresponses.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-memphisshelby-county-updates.html

And if you appreciate my work on covid, please consider making a donation to @LifeLineSuccess: https://charity.gofundme.com/o/en/campaign/blight-patrol-needs-new-mowers

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