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1) With schools across Quebec set to reopen in less than three weeks, community transmission of the #coronavirus in Montreal is still higher than it was in mid-June. In this thread, I will examine the implications of this contagion on potential outbreaks in schools.
2) For the first time in three weeks, the Montreal public health department released a report on community transmission by neighborhood on Wednesday. Although it does show a decline in cases in the city’s #COVID19 hot spots, viral transmission remains stubbornly problematic.
3) In the chart below, one can clearly observe the #COVID19 resurgence in the metropolis shortly after Quebec’s misguided decision to reopen bars and send the wrong message to people that it was okay to drink alcohol in groups, leading to house parties. See the blue arrow below.
4) On July 17, Quebec made face coverings compulsory in public spaces, following pressure from physicians. The red arrow below shows that cases started declining shortly afterward. But the masks are not enough. Community transmission is continuing.
5) On Wednesday, Montreal posted 40 new #COVID19 cases, up from 32 the day before, according to the chart below. By comparison, the whole province of British Columbia recorded 46 cases in a trend that compelled the government to delay the reopening of schools until Sept. 10.
6) B.C. has won praise for its prudent approach to the #pandemic, having declared Canada’s first #COVID19 outbreak in March. In contrast, Quebec is not only sticking to its Aug. 31 date to reopen schools despite Montreal’s resurgence, it's allowed public gatherings of 250 people.
7) The World Health Organization has urged jurisdictions to greatly reduce community transmission to prepare the best possible conditions to reopen schools. B.C. is following this guidance, but I would be hard pressed to acknowledge that Quebec is doing so.
8) The chart below by the Montreal public health department reveals #COVID19 community transmission has inched up in densely populated Côte-des-Neiges, home to many public schools. (A more detailed analysis reveals that transmission dipped a bit in adjoining Notre-Dame-de-Grâce.)
9) In an earlier thread, I urged authorities to postpone the reopening of schools, as B.C. would later do, until we see evidence of a sustained decline in #COVID19 community transmission, aiming for the numbers the city reported in mid-June — before the needless resurgence.
10) Since it doesn’t look like Quebec will even deign to consider following B.C.’s lead, we are left to hope — yes, hope — that community transmission will decline. More likely, there will be sporadic #COVID19 outbreaks in the community, and possibly clusters in some schools.
11) Meanwhile, Montreal added 12 #COVID fatalities Wednesday, raising its death toll to 3,462. Ten of the deaths occurred at the Place Kensington residence last spring but were added only this week. Authorities incorrectly categorized those deaths Tuesday as active cases.
