This thread about hospitalization projections is a few months in the making. It focuses on the recent “hot spot” states of CA, TX, FL, AZ, & Georgia. It looks at the projections of @CovidActNow which is hosted by @nytimes & uses several prestigious academic outlets including 1/8
my alma mater, Georgetown University.

These very ominous projections have had a strong paralyzing impact on some of these states reopening & influenced the new restrictions in California. As I go through each state keep an eye on how doomsday keeps moving backwards, but the 2/8
black line marking actual hospitalizations hardly ever moves, regardless of state actions.

We start with CA. Clearly, overall hospitalizations never come close to reaching “capacity,” even during the media panic of a month ago. Red line is worst case, blue is current trend. 3/8
black line marking actual hospitalizations hardly ever moves, regardless of state actions.We start with CA. Clearly, overall hospitalizations never come close to reaching “capacity,” even during the media panic of a month ago. Red line is worst case, blue is current trend. 3/8
black line marking actual hospitalizations hardly ever moves, regardless of state actions.We start with CA. Clearly, overall hospitalizations never come close to reaching “capacity,” even during the media panic of a month ago. Red line is worst case, blue is current trend. 3/8
black line marking actual hospitalizations hardly ever moves, regardless of state actions.We start with CA. Clearly, overall hospitalizations never come close to reaching “capacity,” even during the media panic of a month ago. Red line is worst case, blue is current trend. 3/8
black line marking actual hospitalizations hardly ever moves, regardless of state actions.We start with CA. Clearly, overall hospitalizations never come close to reaching “capacity,” even during the media panic of a month ago. Red line is worst case, blue is current trend. 3/8
A similar story is told over the last 2 months in Texas, where the media has focused quite a bit on fear of hospitals being “overwhelmed.”

Notice how much less confident @CovidActNow becomes in their own predictions as they start to greatly shorten their projection lines. 4/8
A similar story is told over the last 2 months in Texas, where the media has focused quite a bit on fear of hospitals being “overwhelmed.” Notice how much less confident @CovidActNow becomes in their own predictions as they start to greatly shorten their projection lines. 4/8
A similar story is told over the last 2 months in Texas, where the media has focused quite a bit on fear of hospitals being “overwhelmed.” Notice how much less confident @CovidActNow becomes in their own predictions as they start to greatly shorten their projection lines. 4/8
A similar story is told over the last 2 months in Texas, where the media has focused quite a bit on fear of hospitals being “overwhelmed.” Notice how much less confident @CovidActNow becomes in their own predictions as they start to greatly shorten their projection lines. 4/8
A similar story is told over the last 2 months in Texas, where the media has focused quite a bit on fear of hospitals being “overwhelmed.” Notice how much less confident @CovidActNow becomes in their own predictions as they start to greatly shorten their projection lines. 4/8
Next comes Florida, where, despite a huge amount of fearful media coverage, and, like Texas, a recent increased rate of daily deaths, the hospitalization crisis has never materialized on a state-wise level. 5/8
Next comes Florida, where, despite a huge amount of fearful media coverage, and, like Texas, a recent increased rate of daily deaths, the hospitalization crisis has never materialized on a state-wise level. 5/8
Next comes Florida, where, despite a huge amount of fearful media coverage, and, like Texas, a recent increased rate of daily deaths, the hospitalization crisis has never materialized on a state-wise level. 5/8
Next comes Florida, where, despite a huge amount of fearful media coverage, and, like Texas, a recent increased rate of daily deaths, the hospitalization crisis has never materialized on a state-wise level. 5/8
Next comes Florida, where, despite a huge amount of fearful media coverage, and, like Texas, a recent increased rate of daily deaths, the hospitalization crisis has never materialized on a state-wise level. 5/8
Arizona might be the state which got the most concern regarding hospitalizations, & after some horrible overall numbers a month ago, the state has made a good recovery.

Once again, hospitalizations have never come close to these unfounded fears of a catastrophic situation. 6/8
Arizona might be the state which got the most concern regarding hospitalizations, & after some horrible overall numbers a month ago, the state has made a good recovery.Once again, hospitalizations have never come close to these unfounded fears of a catastrophic situation. 6/8
Arizona might be the state which got the most concern regarding hospitalizations, & after some horrible overall numbers a month ago, the state has made a good recovery.Once again, hospitalizations have never come close to these unfounded fears of a catastrophic situation. 6/8
Arizona might be the state which got the most concern regarding hospitalizations, & after some horrible overall numbers a month ago, the state has made a good recovery.Once again, hospitalizations have never come close to these unfounded fears of a catastrophic situation. 6/8
Arizona might be the state which got the most concern regarding hospitalizations, & after some horrible overall numbers a month ago, the state has made a good recovery.Once again, hospitalizations have never come close to these unfounded fears of a catastrophic situation. 6/8
Finally, comes Georgia, which might be the most telling state since they have had the few restrictions. In theory, the red line should have been an indicator of the certain doomsday the state was surely headed for. But as you can see, that has never come close to happening. 7/8
Finally, comes Georgia, which might be the most telling state since they have had the few restrictions. In theory, the red line should have been an indicator of the certain doomsday the state was surely headed for. But as you can see, that has never come close to happening. 7/8
Finally, comes Georgia, which might be the most telling state since they have had the few restrictions. In theory, the red line should have been an indicator of the certain doomsday the state was surely headed for. But as you can see, that has never come close to happening. 7/8
Finally, comes Georgia, which might be the most telling state since they have had the few restrictions. In theory, the red line should have been an indicator of the certain doomsday the state was surely headed for. But as you can see, that has never come close to happening. 7/8
Finally, comes Georgia, which might be the most telling state since they have had the few restrictions. In theory, the red line should have been an indicator of the certain doomsday the state was surely headed for. But as you can see, that has never come close to happening. 7/8
In conclusion this topic REALLY needs some attention as these projections have been catastrophically wrong & had an INCREDIBLY destructive impact, scaring the crap out of decision-makers of all sorts who wrongly presume that if the @nytimes is hosting it that it must be credible.
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