Please don't allow the Govt, and @GavinWilliamson in particular, to get away with using the 'triple lock' line in defence of the A level (and GCSE) results fiasco.

Let us think a little about what each element of the 'lock' involves. 1/13

The first lock is the grade which students receive via their adjusted school appraisal grades. These are the grades to be awarded tomorrow; said, in many (c 40% of) cases, to be lower than the grades predicted by teachers. 2/

It is the unfairness of these grades which has prompted the latest announcements by the Govt. This is not much of a lock. 3/

The third lock is the opportunity to retake assessments in September. This possibility has existed since the decision to abandon summer assessments was taken. 4/

It is not easy to see how students will be able to prepare for these September assessments; and more than that, it is not yet known when the results will be known, and what the impact will be on University entry. 5/

News on that is expected next week... so not exactly reassuring for those who do not receive the results they need tomorrow. And it is not as if the Govt hasn't had months to make plans for resits and University admissions. 6/

It is the second lock which represents the 'new' element. If students are not happy with their grades, they can appeal so as to get their mock grade, if the mock grade is higher. 7/

News on the appeal mechanism is, once again, expected next week. That will have knock-on effects for Uni admissions. But there are two bigger problems with the 'mock lock'. 8/

First, mocks are taken in different ways in different schools. In some, they are not taken at all. We await news on the 'validation' process. 9/

Second, mock results are often lower than final grades (students are often 'shocked' by mocks, and realise that they have to work harder to achieve higher results). Teachers' assessments are likely to use mocks as a baseline, and are likely to expect students to improve. 10/

Some students may benefit from this lock; but many fewer than benefited from the Scottish Govt's approach of allowing students to keep their teacher-predicted grades. We'll start to know which groups may benefit from tomorrow. 11/

All in all, the triple lock amounts to a) the adjusted grade; b) the mock grade (likely to be lower; and if so, of no use); and c) a chance to resit. The implications of b) and c), eg for Uni entrance, are not yet known. 12/

This process was always going to be difficult, with many hugely sensitive to any perceived unfairness. But it has been ignored... until the very last minute (and only after the problems of the SQA last week). It's developing into another shambles. ENDS 13/13