Read on Twitter
I'm revisiting my model of #COVID19 spread that I did over a month ago and see what I got right, what I got wrong and what changes I would make
For this to make sense please read this old thread if you haven't already https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1280547634382606339
For this to make sense please read this old thread if you haven't already https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1280547634382606339
Let's start with my initial prediction
I think it holds up pretty good
East/SE Asia is still at low levels
North East US and Western Europe have not seen a significant second wave
Rest of US/Eastern Europe has seen increases but not exponential https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1280547677718093829?s=20
I think it holds up pretty good
East/SE Asia is still at low levels
North East US and Western Europe have not seen a significant second wave
Rest of US/Eastern Europe has seen increases but not exponential https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1280547677718093829?s=20
But some Asian countries have started rising:
Japan
Philippines
Yes, but not significantly compared to EU/US
When your strategy is to crush the virus, you are really just delaying the inevitable
H/T @JordanSchachtel for this perfect illustration of this point
Japan
Philippines
Yes, but not significantly compared to EU/US
When your strategy is to crush the virus, you are really just delaying the inevitable
H/T @JordanSchachtel for this perfect illustration of this point
What about lockdowns?
People say lockdowns don't work but technically they do reduce cases
I think saying lockdowns are pointless is more accurate
Both Israel and Romania shut down early
Really made no difference - bet they wish they hadn't
People say lockdowns don't work but technically they do reduce cases
I think saying lockdowns are pointless is more accurate
Both Israel and Romania shut down early
Really made no difference - bet they wish they hadn't
Also, some countries are seeing new cases rising
Yes, and I will explain this very shortly as I adjust the model
Strangely enough, we are not seeing deaths resulting from these new upticks
Yes, and I will explain this very shortly as I adjust the model
Strangely enough, we are not seeing deaths resulting from these new upticks
So what needs to be adjusted?
1) Burnout theory should be applied to interconnected local communities such as cities+suburbs - not to states or countries
2) Must account for seasonality, but not the way you might think
3) Crushing the virus not just an Asian thing
4) Masks? Meh
1) Burnout theory should be applied to interconnected local communities such as cities+suburbs - not to states or countries
2) Must account for seasonality, but not the way you might think
3) Crushing the virus not just an Asian thing
4) Masks? Meh
It's important to understand that COVID19 mainly affects large urban areas and their interconnected suburbs
The perfect example is the NY, NJ, CT Tri-State area
These counties are all interconnected by millions of people commuting into NYC every day
The perfect example is the NY, NJ, CT Tri-State area
These counties are all interconnected by millions of people commuting into NYC every day
The Tri-State area has 59% of the 3 state's population, but accounts for 88% of deaths
Tri-State deaths per million: 2,453
Deaths per million of the remaining 41% of the states: 516
Covid is going to have to make its way through every major urban area for the US to burnout
Tri-State deaths per million: 2,453
Deaths per million of the remaining 41% of the states: 516
Covid is going to have to make its way through every major urban area for the US to burnout
This is why we see cases again rising in Spain
Their deaths were mainly in the Madrid region
There are lots of major urban centers in Spain with very low infections percentages
Thankfully deaths are not rising - I can't really understand why
Their deaths were mainly in the Madrid region
There are lots of major urban centers in Spain with very low infections percentages
Thankfully deaths are not rising - I can't really understand why
The brilliance of what Sweden did is they established a baseline of sacrifices they were willing to make: shut down major events +basic social distancing
Then they let the virus burnout based on what they considered acceptable lifestyle
What a beautiful Gompertz curve they have
Then they let the virus burnout based on what they considered acceptable lifestyle
What a beautiful Gompertz curve they have
Next is seasonality
By seasonality, I mean that Rt is increased Oct-April so you see an increase
This isn't really the case now because the virus is new and can still spread even in more difficult summer conditions because there is such a large reservoir of susceptible people
By seasonality, I mean that Rt is increased Oct-April so you see an increase
This isn't really the case now because the virus is new and can still spread even in more difficult summer conditions because there is such a large reservoir of susceptible people
Eventually, it will probably settle into a seasonal pattern like other coronaviruses
What this means for us is that burnout achieved during the summer may not hold when winter comes and Rt of virus increases
We won't see a big second wave but we are likely to see something
What this means for us is that burnout achieved during the summer may not hold when winter comes and Rt of virus increases
We won't see a big second wave but we are likely to see something
Third, is the idea that only East/SE Asia can crush the virus
It seems there are western democracies that can crush the virus
Examples: Germany, Austria, Finland
It is possible to replicate the South Korean model
Germany 111 deaths/M
Not sure it's advisable to try...
It seems there are western democracies that can crush the virus
Examples: Germany, Austria, Finland
It is possible to replicate the South Korean model
Germany 111 deaths/M
Not sure it's advisable to try...
A number of EU countries have managed this feat (blue)
Mostly countries with very disciplined cultures or small island nations (really helps to be an island!)
Green: burnout
Red still burning
Only a few US states have managed to do this but mostly due to low urban demographic
Mostly countries with very disciplined cultures or small island nations (really helps to be an island!)
Green: burnout
Red still burning
Only a few US states have managed to do this but mostly due to low urban demographic
Finally, we get to masks
Common sense says they should help at least a little
There are studies which show this, but many show they don't work
No significant RCT has proven that masks work
EU countries have crushed COVID without masks so I will say they probably don't work
Common sense says they should help at least a little
There are studies which show this, but many show they don't work
No significant RCT has proven that masks work
EU countries have crushed COVID without masks so I will say they probably don't work
And that's it
If you enjoyed please RT the first tweet
Thanks for reading this far!
If you enjoyed please RT the first tweet
Thanks for reading this far!
I forgot to add this excellent thread by @trvrb which explains why 20% infection + human mitigation is enough for burnout to be achieved
It's all about the Rt and getting it to or below 1 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992?s=20
It's all about the Rt and getting it to or below 1 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992?s=20
