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1/9
EDM doesn’t understand 2 important parts of their PK:
1 - It was mostly luck
2 - It shouldn’t play a big part in roster decisions
First, what indicates the PK was mostly luck? Let’s look at the numbers
EDM’s PK rankings:
CA/60 – 22nd
HDCA/60 – 9th
HDSV% - 7th
SV% - 1st
EDM doesn’t understand 2 important parts of their PK:
1 - It was mostly luck
2 - It shouldn’t play a big part in roster decisions
First, what indicates the PK was mostly luck? Let’s look at the numbers
EDM’s PK rankings:
CA/60 – 22nd
HDCA/60 – 9th
HDSV% - 7th
SV% - 1st
2/9
EDM’s PK summary: Shot suppression bad, high danger suppression decent, best goaltending in the world
Are EDM’s goalies great PKers? Here’s Mike Smith’s PK SV% & league rank the last 4 seasons:
16/17 – .861 (36th)
17/18 - .889 (18th)
18/19 - .824 (52nd)
19/20 - .918 (1st)
EDM’s PK summary: Shot suppression bad, high danger suppression decent, best goaltending in the world
Are EDM’s goalies great PKers? Here’s Mike Smith’s PK SV% & league rank the last 4 seasons:
16/17 – .861 (36th)
17/18 - .889 (18th)
18/19 - .824 (52nd)
19/20 - .918 (1st)
3/9
Either M. Smith became the best PKer ever or EDM rode a SV% heater
But what about Tippett? Here’s how Tip’s teams have performed on PK, GA/60 and NHL rank:
14/15 – 8.42 (29th)
15/16 – 8.09 (28th)
16/17 – 8.29 (26th)
19/20 – 5.15 (2nd)
So it wasn’t Tippett
Either M. Smith became the best PKer ever or EDM rode a SV% heater
But what about Tippett? Here’s how Tip’s teams have performed on PK, GA/60 and NHL rank:
14/15 – 8.42 (29th)
15/16 – 8.09 (28th)
16/17 – 8.29 (26th)
19/20 – 5.15 (2nd)
So it wasn’t Tippett
4/9
Fine - perhaps Holland’s signings are why EDM’s PK was good? Here’s EDM’s top PK forwards (GA/60):
Khaira – 2.39 (1st)
RNH – 3.73 (2rd)
Draisaitl – 4.34 (3rd)
All pre-Holland. So Sheahan & Archibald likely aren’t the reason for success either
Fine - perhaps Holland’s signings are why EDM’s PK was good? Here’s EDM’s top PK forwards (GA/60):
Khaira – 2.39 (1st)
RNH – 3.73 (2rd)
Draisaitl – 4.34 (3rd)
All pre-Holland. So Sheahan & Archibald likely aren’t the reason for success either
5/9
We are left with two possible explanations:
-Smith and Tippett became excellent at something they weren’t very good at prior to this season + Archibald & Sheahan made Khaira, RNH, & Draisaitl better at PKing; or
-EDM has an average PK that rode luck
What’s more likely?
We are left with two possible explanations:
-Smith and Tippett became excellent at something they weren’t very good at prior to this season + Archibald & Sheahan made Khaira, RNH, & Draisaitl better at PKing; or
-EDM has an average PK that rode luck
What’s more likely?
6/9
What’s wrong with luck? Nothing
Problem is EDM’s roster decisions show they can’t separate performance from luck and don’t understand PK impact
Take Sheahan and Arch
Here’s their 5v5 performance:
JA - 34.55 GF% (17th worst in NHL)
RA – 31.48 GF% (12th worst in NHL)
What’s wrong with luck? Nothing
Problem is EDM’s roster decisions show they can’t separate performance from luck and don’t understand PK impact
Take Sheahan and Arch
Here’s their 5v5 performance:
JA - 34.55 GF% (17th worst in NHL)
RA – 31.48 GF% (12th worst in NHL)
7/9
We can split hairs on the degree JA and RA are responsible for their 5v5 results but the opposition has a major advantage when these two are on the ice – that’s a fact
How many goals did they save on the PK?
Less than 6 goal accounting for teammates, goaltending, TOI, etc
We can split hairs on the degree JA and RA are responsible for their 5v5 results but the opposition has a major advantage when these two are on the ice – that’s a fact
How many goals did they save on the PK?
Less than 6 goal accounting for teammates, goaltending, TOI, etc
8/9
That comes as no surprise to anyone that understands how little of the game is played short-handed.
There’s just not enough PK ice time to make up for a player that posts <35% GF% at 5v5
The PK was more lucky than good and Sheahan and Archibald are terrible 5v5. So what?
That comes as no surprise to anyone that understands how little of the game is played short-handed.
There’s just not enough PK ice time to make up for a player that posts <35% GF% at 5v5
The PK was more lucky than good and Sheahan and Archibald are terrible 5v5. So what?
9/9
Signing F’s to PK is not a good idea in the first place. EDM’s main issue is 5v5 without 97 & 29
Sheahan and Archibald don’t help
Worse Holland extended Arch for 2 x $1.5M despite being one of the NHL’s worst 5v5 F’s
This indicates EDM still doesn’t consider basic data
Signing F’s to PK is not a good idea in the first place. EDM’s main issue is 5v5 without 97 & 29
Sheahan and Archibald don’t help
Worse Holland extended Arch for 2 x $1.5M despite being one of the NHL’s worst 5v5 F’s
This indicates EDM still doesn’t consider basic data
