Read on Twitter
Been posting about $CHRS a lot lately but the recent earnings call was very bullish to me so I'm going to post the Q&A answers I was most interested in...(The prepared remarks were good, too, but the Q&A hits on the most common bearish POVs.)
On their licensed Lucentis BLA resubmission - BLA on track for next Q
On branded Neulasta's current share and total pegfilgrastim market growth
On Udenyca's market share exiting the quarter
On business development. Oncology is still the focus...even if they did no business development they are on track for 5 biosimiliar launches in the next 5 years. That will get the focus off nitpicking minor Udenyca fluctuations
On competition in the pegfilgrastim space and pricing power
On Udenyca and WAC price
On PD-1 strategy...good chance this is the next focus once they get through the 2025 approvals and launch if not sooner
On Udenyca future share, pricing and guidance
On Oncology business development and the ability to add products without adding significant costs
On Gross Margins...maybe the most interesting answer. This business is a very attractive space to be in
Gross margin answer continued because there was a page break
All in all, I think the pegfilgrastim market looks like this currently:
Neulasta OnPro: 56%
Neulasta Legacy PFS product: 14%
Udenyca (Coherus): 23%
Fulphila (Mylan): 7%
Ziextenzo (Sandoz) <1%
Pfizer - awaiting code
Neulasta OnPro: 56%
Neulasta Legacy PFS product: 14%
Udenyca (Coherus): 23%
Fulphila (Mylan): 7%
Ziextenzo (Sandoz) <1%
Pfizer - awaiting code
I think OnPro probable settles around 50%. Leaving half the market for the biosims to fight over and this is a market that is growing with new treatment guidelines...eventually there will be over a million US patients per year using these products.
Pricing is a concern but the biosimiliar space is a lot more than pure price as you have to handhold the providers, patients with copay cards, etc. Coherus has a completely US-based supply chain which may be a small benefit.
But the real focus should be using Udenyca's profitability to bridge until end of 2021 when Lucentis biosimiliar should launch... (will be watching this to assess management credibility) Avastin biosimiliar should come late 2021/early 2022 as well.
$chrs timeline:
Late 2021: Lucentis biosim
Early 2022: Avastin biosim
2023: Rituxan and Humira biosims
2025: Eylea biosim
Total addressable market is $30b. Even capturing 20% of that while keeping costs low...
Late 2021: Lucentis biosim
Early 2022: Avastin biosim
2023: Rituxan and Humira biosims
2025: Eylea biosim
Total addressable market is $30b. Even capturing 20% of that while keeping costs low...
Humira market will be hard to capture 20% share because of competition but market is so large ($15b) that you don't need necessarily...
Lucentis market is much smaller ($1.8b) but competition will be limited due to difficulties to produce the product so possibility of more share
Lucentis market is much smaller ($1.8b) but competition will be limited due to difficulties to produce the product so possibility of more share
Also Neulasta might have an on body product but they aren't commenting due to competitive reasons. I'm not expecting it any time soon but would be very bullish to go after the half of the market Udenyca can't really compete with.
Threat to the wAMD biosimiliars would be a superior product coming along to treat wAMD so probably good idea to get long the product you think will do that...
End of thread-bearish viewpoints welcome on competition, products they licensed, etc. Short % of float is 30, seems high
End of thread-bearish viewpoints welcome on competition, products they licensed, etc. Short % of float is 30, seems high
