Thread: @nyuCIC director @sarah_cliffe's remarks to the #UNSC on #COVID19: “I think we have to accept that the pandemic has exposed fragility in all countries, in our health systems, economic, social and political fabric.”

Five conflict risk triggers outlined by @sarah_cliffe: 1. The COVID-19 economic shock is the deepest since WWII and the broadest since 1870. The global economy is likely to contract by 5% this year—a threshold that research shows is correlated with a much higher risk of conflict.

2. The pandemic has led many countries to postpone elections. Postponing elections is sometimes the only responsible action to take, but this will mean rising pressure for elections in late 2020 or 21. Disputed elections are a trigger for conflict.

3. Countries that depend on remittances from workers abroad may be especially vulnerable. The World Bank projects that remittances will decline by 110 billion dollars this year, or equivalent to more than two thirds of the entire global overseas development assistance budget.

4. "We are seeing local spikes in food prices in conflict zones in many countries, such as Afghanistan, DRC, Syria, and Yemen. Food prices are the typical risk to watch, historically, for conflict levels."

5. Inequality in access to public health goods: developing countries' difficulty in procuring PPE, test kits, medicines, and equipment, has already widened the gap in capacity to suppress COVID-19 and has damaged trust. This gap is set to widen further when vaccines are found.

What can be done? There are opportunities for the UN and the international community to act to prevent conflict and sustain peace, and global opinion polls show a high public demand for multilateral action.

“In effect," says @sarah_cliffe, "people have been brutally reminded what we have governments, and international cooperation for—that without them, there are some forms of crisis that cannot be solved."

Specific actions that international actors can take to sustain peace include supporting the secretary-general's call for a universal ceasefire, making sure the UN's COVID-19 response embraces a conflict-sensitive approach, and investing in global public health.

"Why raise some of these socio-economic issues at the Security Council? These problems may become international threats to peace and security if they are not addressed.” @sarah_cliffe