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In thinking about this year& #39;s #EconJobMarket, one analogue is what happened during the 2008-09 financial crisis. A new memo by our AEA committee on the job market explores this: 1/7
https://www.aeaweb.org/joe/communications/memo-aug-11-2020">https://www.aeaweb.org/joe/commu...
https://www.aeaweb.org/joe/communications/memo-aug-11-2020">https://www.aeaweb.org/joe/commu...
Using 2008 as the benchmark, the # jobs in JOE was 20.7% lower in 2009, 2.7% lower in 2010, and 3.1% lower in 2011. Full recovery by 2012 (0.9% higher than in 2008). 2/7
Weeds 1: we have to use 2008 as our benchmark because it& #39;s the earliest year we have microdata on job listings. There& #39;s some evidence that the job mkt in late 2008 was already somewhat affected by the crisis, so using 2008 as benchmark may understate the later impact. 3/7
Weeds 2: if we use aggregate data (which goes back further) & use 2007 as benchmark, # jobs was 1.1% lower in 2008, 20.7% lower in 2009, ~2.5% lower in 2010 and 2011, and had fully rebounded by 2012. 4/7
So, a similar story: one really bad year (2009) followed by two slight down years (2010, 2011). 5/7
Yes that doesn& #39;t bode well for 2020-21. However, keep in mind that economists have the lowest UE rate & among the highest salaries of any PhD discipline. Even if # jobs on JOE falls by HALF, that& #39;s still ~2,000 jobs, far higher than the # of new Econ PhDs produced in the US. 6/7
Here& #39;s the website of the AEA ad hoc committee on the job market so you can stay up to date: 7/7 and END https://www.aeaweb.org/joe/communications">https://www.aeaweb.org/joe/commu...
