#EastMed thread:

There are many questions about Israel's first meaningful public statement in several months. Israel is traditionally hesitant to make declarative statements unless it has something to say. So this is important and is worthy of the attention it is receiving. 1/

Israeli MFA's statement + meeting between Israeli ambassador in Athens with Greek FM Dendias no doubt occurred w/awareness of Pompeo's reported meeting w/Dendias on Aug 14 + presumably clarification by Washington on its position re regional developments. 2/

Was the photo op the sole purpose of the Israeli ambassador's meeting with Dendias a diplomatic gesture or was there a specific message - either of support, or an articulation of Israel's limitations - that was shared with Greece? 3/

Why was the Israeli Foreign Ministry's statement translated into Greek by its embassy in Athens but not by its embassy in Ankara? This suggests that Israel is trying to keep everything level and maintain channels of dialogue with everyone involved. 4/

We also don't know whether the Foreign Ministry's statements came in coordination with the NOTAM in the vicinity of Turkey's Navtex, just southwest of Cyprus, whether the events are totally unrelated. 5/ https://twitter.com/sfrantzman/status/1293440174869950466

With so many things in the East Med, we know that Israel's statement is important. But the extent of its importance and how long it will hold value remains a question. 6/

As articulated by so many analysts in recent weeks, the real risk is that one or more Eastern Mediterranean actors miscalculate another and there is an unintentional escalation. Israel definitely does not want this to happen. It has enough domestic headaches right now. 7/

There will no doubt be further clarification about Israel's statement, Pompeo's visit, and Turkey's response in the coming days. This chapter isn't over. END/