. #xG & its related cousins has provided the most coherent explanation for #LFC title romp. 85% likelihood they win using xG2. It's also highlighted their conservative game management. Scoring first has been important & they've done it 29 times in the PL.

Simulate the #xG of each attempt in their matches in chronological order & #LFC score first in 29 or more games around 4% of the time. That's not too outlandish for a specific team & likely for someone to achieve most seasons.

But chuck in the xG2 of each on target attempt instead, where #LFC defensive numbers diverge most and now #LFC open the scoring 29 or more times in 38% of trials. Commonplace. But sustainability still remains the issue.